Capitalist Investor

Port Strike, Israel Tensions, VP Debate, Ep. 293

• Strategic Wealth Partners

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Navigating Labor Strikes, Middle East Tensions, VP Debates, and Global Economies: Key Insights from This Week's Capitalist Investor Episode
In the latest episode of the Capitalist Investor, hosts Diamond Hands D, Tony the Tiger, and Cool Hand Luke delve into five pivotal topics that have significant economic, political, and social implications. Here's a breakdown of the episode's key discussions:
1. The Longshoremen Strike and Its Economic Impact
The episode kicks off with a deep dive into the longshoremen strike, where workers are demanding a staggering 77% pay raise over five years. Luke argues that this could be a case of unions being overly greedy, especially given the direct correlation between the rise in strikes and inflationary pressures over the past few years. The hosts also discuss how resistance to automation could backfire, as robots don't strike or demand pay raises. Tony highlights the logistical nightmare, noting that for every day on strike, it takes three to five days to catch up on the backlog. The consensus? The strike is setting up workers for obsolescence in the face of inevitable automation.
2. Middle East Tensions and Economic Ripples
The conversation swiftly moves to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran. Luke provides a hot take on the economic ramifications, explaining that if Iran is attacked, it could disrupt oil exports to China, potentially leading to a larger-scale conflict involving Russia. Such a scenario would wreak havoc on commodity prices, causing reinflation in the U.S. and shattering the Federal Reserve's narrative of cooling inflation. Tony throws in a conspiracy theory, questioning the timing and nature of the missile attacks, suggesting that something feels staged.
3. Vice Presidential Debate: A Breath of Fresh Air
The recent Vice Presidential debate also makes headlines in this episode. Diamond Hands D praises the debate for being watchable and surprisingly cordial. Tony lauds JD Vance for his well-spoken and knowledgeable demeanor, even hinting that he might vote for him in the future. Luke speculates that JD could run for president in 2028, sharing his excitement about a potential JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy partnership. Despite the positive reception, the hosts agree that Vice Presidential debates don't usually sway voters significantly, as people vote for the president, not the VP.
### 4. China's Stimulus Package: Bazooka or Firecracker?
When it comes to global economics, China's recent $115 billion stimulus package, dubbed the "bazooka," is dissected. Tony finds the amount underwhelming compared to the U.S.'s multi-trillion-dollar stimulus efforts. Luke explains that while the amount may seem minuscule, the perception is that China is committed to bailing out its economy, which has been facing real estate issues and supply-demand imbalances. The discussion ends with a cautionary note that government bailouts often make things worse in the long run.
5. Childhood Dreams: From Fighter Pilots to Watch Reviewers
In a lighter segment, the hosts reveal their childhood career aspirations. Luke initially wanted to be a banker, later dreaming of becoming a quantum physicist or biomedical engineer. Tony aspired to be a fighter jet pilot, sharing an inspiring story of meeting a real-life Blue Angels pilot at a wedding. Diamond Hands D kept it simple, initially wanting to be a professional basketball or baseball player. Today, he dreams of starting a YouTube channel to review luxury watches.
Final Thoughts
This week's Capitalist Investor episode is a rollercoaster of economic insights, global political analysis, and personal anecdotes. Whether it's the implications of labor strikes, the destabilizing effects of Middle Eastern conflicts, the nuances of political debates, or the financial strategies of global superpowers, the hosts cover it all with their signature

Hello, and welcome to this week's episode of the Capitalist Investor. As always, you have me, diamond Hands D, and we got the whole crew here together. Tony the tiger, cool hand Luke. What's going on, guys? We are going back to the old layout for the podcast. We are. We're gonna go to one episode, roughly 20 ish minutes, not as spread out anymore. So just wanted to throw that out there so that everybody is aware of that. We got some. Some hot topics today. A lot of world events happening. Want to go through the list real quick and then we can hit on each one? Yeah, absolutely. So, obviously, there was a VP debate last night, so we will talk about that. Probably the biggest news yesterday and kind of leading up to yesterday, the longshoremen strike. So we'll talk about that. We'll talk Middle east tension, and we'll finish it up with a fun topic. What did you want to be when you grew up? Don't forget about China and the debate. I said. I said the debate. Oh, yeah. All right. China. Bazooka. China kind of goes into the debate. My bad. Silly. All right, strike. What's up? I know. I know Luke has a lot he wants to say. So, about the strike. No, just hit us with it, man. Wherever you want to start. Let's start with. Yeah, the strike. Right? So, like, what's interesting is this has been not a culprit of corporations being greedy. There's a direct correlation with the amount of people on strike per year the past four years in inflationary pressures. I think it was like 100 grand. 100,000 people were on strike. Jobs were on strike in 21, like 250,000. In 22. 2023, there was 500,000 people on strike. And this year, we could be higher. You know, there's a direct correlation with inflationary pressures and people on strike. But the problem is, my hot take on this is that these union strikers, you know, that are so against this automation. That's why they're striking for 77% pay raise, which is absolutely ridiculous. Honestly. I will go this far to say that they are being greedy. Unions are being greedy. How much? 77% in five years. So that's called about a 15. Whatever percentage. 15% every year. 15% every single year. 12% compounded. Whatever you want to do. Right? Which is still ridiculous. It's almost to the point where unions, middle class. I understand people have been struggling. I understand people want to make more money. But there's also time and place to ask for a huge pay raise. This is not the time because they're shooting themselves in the foot, and they're being almost greedy for that 77%. But they're also going against themselves when it comes to automation. Automation revolution is happening. This AI, technological advancement stifle innovation. So them saying that they don't want automation, you know, and striking robots don't strike, and robots don't ask for 77% a races. They're literally shooting themselves in the foot and they're going to speed up the process by doing this. So here's the thing. So one thing is, is that for every day, I saw something, for every day that they're on strike, it puts them on a three to five day catch up. Like they're behind that much work, right. And they're already having boats anchored down, waiting to come into port. Right. Right. Now, I think. I thought it was also fascinating that the, the union leader makes like a million dollars a year, drives a Bentley, he's got a yacht, a big boat, you know, and making a million dollars a year. And, you know, I don't know. So. But think about where all these ports are. So, you know, fighting automation, that's another battle. But if they're all making a hundred grand a year and you live in New York, like, you're poor guys are. Making 3400, though, are they? I don't. I mean. All right, well, green operators in New York right now are like making like two. 5300. I don't know. So today, are they gonna get a. 77% so that the odds of this math is here in about five years, I'm making about six. $700,000. I mean, I'm quitting. Quitting tomorrow and becoming. Sounds like inflationary because who's going to pay that guy's salary? The people, the boats coming? No one, because robots are going to be getting paid. When, how's that going to work? They're going to just install robots right now? No, it could be about two decade process. But that's a, that's a problem with AI and, and robots and stuff. It's going to take away jobs. So there's this good and bad, and. I don't know, this is what you call mid to late stage capitalism, where capitalism becomes so efficient that it takes away jobs and creates socialism. Capitalism creates socialism. We talked about that last week. It's fascinating to think about, but that's exactly what's happening here. So do these port owners just come in and start automating everything and leave everyone on strike and say, well, we couldn't come to a deal, but I got these robots over here. Is that what's gonna happen? Or you open new ports? I don't know. I mean, like, then you're years and years and years away from getting these boats unpacked. It seems like it's still like a. I don't wanna, you know, generalize, but it still seems like a kinda Tony Soprano type situation that's still going on with these union leaders. Being backed by muscle is what it seems like to me. Yeah, I saw on Twitter, the one guy's like, listen to this guy. He sounds like, you know, like, exactly like a Tony Soprano. Like, this is a classic case of bullying in the old school union talks and things like that. So. So we got to move on. We got to move on. But they are setting themselves up to becoming irrelevant. That. That's. That's the next step here. I think everyone sees it. I mean, going from 300 to 600 grand, like, wow, where does that money come from? You get to drive a crane, make 600 grand. That sounds awesome. You gotta do it. Yeah. Gets to drive a crane and make. Who doesn't want to do that? All right. We have tensions, you know, popping off in Middle east again. So what are your. Any hot takes on that? I do. Economically, I have a hot take because if Israel retaliates and this escalates even further, which is what everyone's concerned about, turns into larger scale war, especially with Iran exporting 90% of the oil to China. So if Iran gets attacked, China could get involved, Russia could. It just could escalate. Right. If that happens economically, what we need to be worried about is reinflation. Because commodity prices, like oil, natural gas, all these commodities that go into wartime, or pumping out supply chain constraints and bottlenecks from exporting oil from the Middle east, that could cause reinflation here in the US, which would absolutely destroy the Federal Reserve's narrative of inflation's cooling, inflation's beat, whatever it be, and then you combine that with the fact that we are implementing AI and technology, this technological revolution is going on. There's more of an energy need. There's a demur demand. So you combine a supply constraint with a demand increase. That's not good for inflation. Yeah, all right, kind of conspiracy theory, but didn't we warn Israel, like, hey, they're gonna shoot some missiles at you? I mean, it's coming. Yeah, but Iron Dome is not perfect, though, so. But aren't you sitting there like, it's like me, Derek, I'm gonna punch you in the face within the next five days. What are you going to do? You're gonna either protect yourself constantly, or you're gonna punch me in the face first, right? I think that's what everyone's worried about. But also, if I punch you in the face, aren't you just gonna punch me back? Like. Like, we're gonna sit here and wait a week and say, hey, we're gonna shoot off some missiles on Saturday at you guys? Like, this is very odd. This doesn't make a lot of sense. Like, where's the immediate retaliation? I just. I feel like it's. It. I don't know what it is. I don't. I'm not an expert in the field, but it doesn't. It just feels staged. It just doesn't seem right. It. Something's off. I don't know. I felt off for a while, but. But if we're talking about energy, you know, this is going to affect energy prices. Well, you know, this. This last presidential regime has drained our strategic petroleum reserves down to nothing. It was full. It was completely full. It is empty. Yeah. That is keeping prices of gas where they are right now. But, I mean, the drill, baby, drill stuff, man. That. That has to become a reality, or we're even in Ohio, we're going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas. That means in California, they're going to be paying. Here's a conspiracy. Maybe they'll let that happen. And then the push Ev's and everybody and say, this is why you need EV's. Maybe they have no charging stations. We can't spend $7 billion. They haven't written. They haven't ripped them out of the. Out of the wall yet. No, but there's only two in there. No, we can use them. All right. The debate happened. Yes, it did. Any hot takes on that? Well, I will say the first hot take was it was actually watchable. They actually talked about stuff and actually debated and relatively cordial settings, you know? So I think just all of that right off the top was a positive for me. I didn't want to garbage my eyes out 8 seconds into it with the other one. You know, Vance came off very, very, very well spoken, very knowledgeable. I saw something on Twitter. I laughed. I giggled, and almost agree with it. It's like, wentz might actually vote for JD Vance, but, I mean. But it could just be. You saw him shake hands before. You saw him shake hands after. You can watch as they were panning away, like, introducing each other's wives. It's bipartisan. It was very bipartisan. Cutthroat. I'm gonna stab you. And, you know, and watch you bleed out like it was her golf games. Golf scores and everything. No, it wasn't. I'll beat you on the golf. I think JD is gonna run for president in 2028. No matter what, he's gonna win. That's. How about him? And was it Vivek? Yeah, that would be a killer combo. What about that combo? That excites me. That would. But, I mean, we gotta get there first. You know, we got to get through the next four years and. I don't know. I'm curious to see what. So I didn't. I didn't check the. The Vegas odds on. On what happened. He had to have Rosen risen a little bit. I don't know. Exactly. Couple points, right? Not pray. Not that much, because VP doesn't really matter. Like, I think someone made a great comment right after the debate. I was on Fox News, obviously, watching the kind of breakdown, and someone says it. I agree with it. Like, it's almost a non event. Like, yeah, we know JD's, like. Like, well spoken now. Everyone that didn't know JD knows JD now, which is good, but I don't think it sways anyone because you're not voting for walls or you're not voting for JD, you're voting Trump or Harris. I mean, that it's. You're voting for the president, not the VP. So I don't think you really swayed too many people. I think it's good it happened just to kind of get people an idea what. Who they are. And frankly, Tim Wallace, I was. I was kind of more impressed with than I originally thought. Like, I. I thought he was more of a real person. I like him better than Harris. Like, I wish he was running for president. On the other side, if I had. To pick one, the VP's might be more likable than vps are. More like. That's what's crazy, right? My only comment with this is the left wing agenda is now running out. If you've seen it this morning, or the other liberal networks that were kind of ABC and CB's talking about the debate afterwards, they said that basically walls won the debate because of one reason. Because JD wouldn't. Didn't answer the question about if Trump lost the election in 2020. So the fact that he kind of did not give a direct answer with that and basically said no, like, we still think that it's potentially possible that we still won the election or Trump won the election. They're saying that's the reason he lost the debate. Look, at the end of the day, no one gives, no one cares. Listen, they were. Maybe Trump was a sore loser at the end of the day, okay? You sound like he kept on saying, listen, maybe. Listen, maybe he was a sore loser or something like that. But the reason you should vote for a president or not vote for a president should not be because you're a sore loser. Like, you should vote because of the policies, because the person like you know that the whole future of America is reliant on the policies and what's going on, not whether or not you believe that. Your question. Using your first amendment rights to question the whole democracy system, which is fine to question, because the more we question it, the more efficient and better it's going to become. That's very true. That's well said. I looked up the odds. It appears to be an exact dead heat, 49.4 to 49.3. And then there's like, who's the other 1%? It's just undecided. It's just. It's just crazy that, like, you know, Harris has 50% of the votes, and I don't know if she really has come with a complete agenda for any, on anything, really, other than I'm attacked. With unrealized gains at 25%. Pay your fair share. Then what do you do? What do you do? You just make a flat tax and there's no write offs, and everyone just. That's the only way to quote, unquote, make it fair. But I'll tell you what. Somebody making 50, 60, 70 grand a year, I mean, they're. They're in the zero and 10% brackets, right? Or the 10% bracket with the standard deduction. I mean, very minimal. I mean, minimal tax. It's. It's. The more money you have, the more complicated it is. And I'm sorry. Our current tax structure is set. I can't even listen to her. Our current tax structure is set up for all kind of shenanigans for write offs. And my iq drops a point every single time I listen to her. Running on zero. Huh? I'm about to go negative. All right, well, the debate was. I like Derek, what you said, it was cordial, it was watchable. Both candidates seemed likable. But I want to see round two with what? Trump and then Harris, it's over. It's not. I think that. I think Trump said, it's too late. So whatever. All right, China had a stimulus package. Bazooka. A bazooka. So this is how I look at this. So their bazooka was $115 billion okay, we have given 175 billion to Ukraine. They must be popping. They must be off the charts. Their economy must be booming. So this is where I'm saying, like, the economy for China is $18 trillion. That's their GDP. The United States is 129. So we're 50% bigger. So what does $115 billion do when we have rolled out 1.2 trillion in 2022 for the Infrastructure act? I'll call that stimulus. That is not a direct stimulus, but it's a stimulus. And then we did the CARES act of 2.2 trillion in 2020. We rolled out over almost three and a half trillion dollars. And they roll out 100 billion and expect the world to stop going in the recession. All the stocks are up 30% in China, basically from their announcement. So it's, I think the perception, again, perception means more than reality. So the reality is, yeah, that's minuscule, but the perception is that China's just going to bail out everything, like the whole system's bill. So the perception is, if they're doing this now, if it gets worse, there's going to do 500 billion, then trillion. They're just going to continue to bail things out because they have a real estate issue. Their whole economy basically was built by the US since we added them to the WTO in 2002. So basically, the western powers, western world, US, built China up. Now, what they used all their money for is borrowed against that money and borrowed against that debt to build up a ton of real estate. So they fueled their whole economy by real estate and they oversupplied real estate. They have a supply and demand imbalance. They don't have enough people in offices, or whatever it be, commercial and residential, to fill that office space. They got that lot of people. So now they're all defaulting, and now they have to bail that all out, kind of like we did in 2008 and 2009 with our real estate market. So the same thing that happened in 2008 and 2009 over here, not same, but similar. It's happening over in China. Things repeat themselves over time. And what's going to be the solution to China? Bail things out like we did in 2008, 2009. We should have gone through more pain. We didn't because we bailed things out. We had, I'm, don't get me wrong, like, I was ten years old, eleven years old when this was happening. But, you know, studying history and seeing a small town, Ohio, where I grew up in, like, go through it, like people were hurting. I get it. People lost homes, people lost jobs. It was painful, but it could have been worse. And it should have been worse. But the government's built to bail things out and China's bailing things out. Yeah, and it wasn't. It's not even to the scale that we bailed out in 2008. But it could be again, like, they call it this bazooka. I don't know what this bill, this hundred billion, but I'm just used to arguing government slinging hundreds of billions and trillions around like it's nothing. So this just is. It just doesn't. On paper, I'm like, really? That's it? Like. But maybe I'm crazy. It seems like they needed it, though. It seems like it. I would stay headed in the wrong direction again. What happens when government bails things out? They usually make things worse. So I would still not be buying this over there. That's very true. All right, so we got three minutes left. Fun topic for the week. When you were a young kid, what did you want to be when you grew up? That's a good one. So I went through two things. My father worked at a small regional bank, and he was the information officer, so he was like, cyber security, things like that. But I remember growing up in the bank and things like that. So I remember at a really young age, I wanted to be a banker. It's funny, I kind of. I'm not a banker, but I guess you could kind of relate to similarly. But the second thing, I'll go, this is what I want to talk about after, like, I was really young, like two, three years old, just said I wanted to be a banker. There was like about a ten year period that I either wanted to be a biomedical engineer or a physicist. Specifically like a quantum physicist. So, you know, I remember being like ten years old trying to disprove Newton's laws of motion. Like the Newton's laws. I was trying to prove why one divided by zero mathematically does not equal, like undefined how one divided by nothing could actually equal infinity or something like that. I was trying to actually do this, like, at a very young age. So my point is, it's very interesting. I think, honestly, I think it would be kind of cool if I had, you know, maybe monetarily, maybe only hit. It, hit us with it, man. Maybe only be making 80,$90,000, maybe a year. I don't think you make a ton of money, quantum physicists. I don't think you make a ton of money by a medical engineer, maybe about 100 grandd, but I think that's not true. Maybe 120. Keep on going. But I do think it'd be cool to work in a lab? I think it'd be cool to work in a lab and just like, you know, be in your mind all the time and do things. I don't know. Like, this is a very personal relationship. I enjoy talking to people. Like, I like to be personable, like, to be outgoing. But sometimes in my mind, I'm like, sometimes we nice just to be on my own head and drawing board and have some fun with it. So, I don't know, it'd be kind of interesting to see how I would ended up if I would have went with biomedical engineering or quantum physics. So I used to work it. Well, my prior life, I was an engineer. I worked in an engineering firm. And, oh, yeah, dude, you're surrounded by a lot of smart people. And, you know, I never, like, I kind of looked. I self reflect on myself, and there was a lot more smarter people in that room than me at all times. And it's not, you know, it, but I know who I am and I know what I do, and that's fine, but it's not, you know, like, being around that is fun because I just went to school. I can understand what they do, how they say it, what their thought patterns are. But I do love this field, financial planning and stuff, because it's always something different. Everyone's financial picture is a little different, but my young childhood dream was to fly a fighter jet. And the funny part of this is we actually went to a wedding this weekend, and one of my good friends, his. One of his good friends was like, whatever's below an admiral in the air force. So he actually flew. He was one of, like, the blue Angels fighter pilots and stuff. So I just dove in, talks. I understand, like, when they're flying, like, it's not just like, hey, I'm gonna go left, I'm gonna go right. It's all about physics and, you know, like, a three dimensional. Like, it's not left, right, up, down. Like, you can also go diagonal. Like, there's a lot of things that can. Vectors. That's the word I was looking for. Like, vectors will get you to where you need to be and all this stuff. And, I mean, they said that they'll. They'll be flying for, like, an hour. Like, that is mental. That has got to be mentally draining. And he'll do that twice a day. He now just trains dog fighting. You know, he's like maverick. It's kind of like top gun, but they're not, like, the best there. He's like, training, right? Talking about the most difficult part of his job was, like, landing a jet. And I've always known this, like, landing a jet on an aircraft carrier in the middle of the night. Like, as it's black and all you see are some lines in the water. And those videos are sweet and. But the boat is moving up, down, rolling, you know, like, it's not just up, down, left, right. It could be pitching. Like, it was. It was a fantastic conversation. I'm sure the poor guy gets asked constantly, but I'm like, yeah, man, I want to be you. I wanted to be used so bad. But he even said, he goes, I didn't think I was going to get here. I had to be first in my class because they were, they had. He had to go through, like, some kind of training. And it wasn't even in planes, but like, hey, if you want to get into the air force and drive a flight or drive air or, you know, we have, like, you can drive like a c ten cargo plane and all this stuff, right? And have a non glorious job. And he goes, I wanted to fly jets, and my class was like, 50 people, and you had to be number one because then you get to pick where you want to be. And he puts number one in his class. So he must be exceptionally smart person and dynamic, too, because he can fly a jet and be, you know, not just smart, but like, reactive and athletic and so interesting. I don't know. That's what I would sign up for. Yeah, I wish I would had something exciting and fun that I wish I was gonna be. Biomedical engineering. I wanted to be a physicist. Fighter jet dude. Oh, my God. What about Ud? You know, it was pretty standard for me. The probably basketball, probably baseball player first that basketball player. When I was real young, I had no. No aspirations of anything. Did you go to school? Did you like, like, I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna go to class. I'm gonna work on my game. No, I was. But, yeah, you know, I was thinking, actually, I watch all these watch videos online. It's like, why can't I make watch videos? So I'm thinking about thinking about doing that like a YouTube channel. I'll talk about review watches. Yep, sounds expensive. I'm borrowing this from the jewelry started. I dissected. I'm gonna be returning it tomorrow. Yeah, but the only relationship I have is with store on in Westlake. Shyn Ted, Teddy Baldassarre, who basically got famous making watch videos. So now they're gonna loan loan me out watches. Is the other one called a Clen cleanse Heinz or something like that over there. West Lake. I don't know. There's a shy bin. Yeah. Yeah. That's where I just got a watch. I'll tune on in. I'll be your monetization. I'll click in every video seems like. A saturated market, but it's just random people. What, making watch videos? And they all get, like, thousands of views. No, I mean, all you need to do is have, you know, get that one little. You just need one of those overhead. Cameras saying, like a couple good reviews on a hot take on a watch, and you get a bunch of followers and go from there. Yeah. So. All right. Good luck with your dream. His dream is actually more, Luke. His dream is actually more attainable than ours. Yeah. Were you dreaming of that at five years old, though? I was not, no. It's pretty boring. I can honestly remember telling my parents that I wanted to be a stockbroker when I was probably twelve. All right, Gordon Gekko. No, that was. That was way before I was allowed to watch a movie like that. I said the same thing at 14, so that's why I'm doing what I'm doing. All right. All right. Well, thanks for listening this week. As we mentioned, up top, we're just going to do the one longer episode each week. So if you have ideas for the show or any comments, hit us up at info@swpconnect.com and we'll talk to you next week. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any investment, legal, financial, or tax strategy. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. Please consult a qualified professional about your individual needs.