Capitalist Investor

Debate Fallout: How Trump vs. Harris Impacts the Market and Economy, Ep. 285

• Strategic Wealth Partners

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In the most recent episode of the Capitalist Investor, hosts Derek, Tony, and Luke dive into several compelling topics that are capturing the attention of investors and the general public alike. Here’s a breakdown of the five hot topics discussed:

1. The Presidential Debate: Key Takeaways and Market Implications
The episode kicks off with a lively discussion about the recent presidential debate featuring Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Tony and Luke dissect the debate's chaotic nature, pointing out that both candidates seemed unfocused and often regurgitated pre-formed answers. They noted that Trump's tendency to revisit old talking points, like the border and past accomplishments, didn’t sit well versus Harris’s more rehearsed but emotionally appealing responses. This debate's immediate effect on the stock market was also scrutinized.
2. Tax Plans and Market Reactions
One of the major focal points was the potential impact of each candidate's tax strategies on the market. The hosts agreed that Harris’s tax plan, if enacted, would likely be detrimental to the market. Derek highlighted the Democratic tax plan's shortcomings, explaining that it could lead to considerable market upheaval next year if implemented. Luke went further by giving his take on the intricacies and ramifications of different tax proposals, emphasizing the critical need for a coherent strategy from whichever administration takes office.
3. Historical Market Trends and Election Predictions
The discussion moved towards historical market trends as predictors for election outcomes. Luke explained the historically backed trend where an upward market in September and October signals an incumbent win, while a downward trend indicates a loss for the incumbent. With the market already down 2.53% in September, the hosts pondered whether this could signal Trump’s potential victory. The analysis on market movement in response to election cycles provided listeners with an interesting perspective on market behavior.
4. Bond Yields and Inflationary Concerns
Tony raised an important point regarding bond yields and inflationary pressures, noting that the market was down slightly until the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hotter than expected. He questioned what the dip in yields might be pricing in, suggesting that another Trump term could bring inflationary concerns back to the forefront due to his tariff policies and economic outlook. This conversation underscored the complexity of market reactions to political and economic news.
5. Public Perception and Campaign Strategies
Finally, the hosts debated public perception following the debate. They noted that, despite a seemingly lackluster performance, Harris gained 4% in betting odds, with Trump losing an equal amount. This shift hinted at Harris's effectiveness in connecting with the average American voter. Derek expressed frustration with both candidates for targeting less informed audiences, urging for more substantial discussions on pressing issues. Additionally, Tony urged Trump to abandon the “rigged election” narrative and focus on forward-looking plans to bolster his campaign.

The episode encapsulated a broad spectrum of critical issues, from tax policy and market trends to public perception and economic strategies. As the election approaches, these discussions serve as a valuable resource for investors looking to navigate the volatile political landscape. The insights provided by Derek, Tony, and Luke offer a nuanced view of the many factors influencing the market, making this a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of politics and investing. Don't forget to catch up on this enlightening episode if you haven't already! 
For more insights and to share your thoughts, contact the hosts  @swpconnect.com.

Hello, and welcome to this episode of the Capitalist Investor. As always, you have me, diamond hands D, and we got the whole crew back together. Tony the tiger, cool hand Luke. What's going on, guys? It was 120 degrees in Arizona. It was 111. And I actually golfed in it. And I should have stopped. I should. I should have stopped after nine holes, man, because, like, you get in the cart, like, I wasn't even sweating by my head. It was. It was like, from the neck down, I was just like, man, I don't feel like I'm sweating, but I was soaked, and I'm like, this can't be good. I've never done that before. I don't know if I'd want to do it again. I should have stopped after nine holes, but I pushed through and got through 17 and a half. Just couldn't. My body was giving up on me. But that's some intense heat. Well, coming off some heat from yesterday from the debate, we had Trump and good old Kamala talking about a bunch of stuff that we don't even know what they're talking about half the time. A lot of anecdotal stuff, no substance. And Trump seems to be repeating himself a lot. So we have some takeaways from the debate today that we're going to talk about what it means for the market economy, what's being priced in and what's not being priced in. Keep this short and sweet, but we'll kind of give our thought process on what we saw and what America is digesting right now. Yeah. So where do you guys want to start? Just quick, hot takes on what you thought it was. I thought it was really boring. I don't know. It was just not. It was back and forth. It wasn't that structured. It sounded like, you know, Harris had a lot of canned answers. And then Trump just went off on these weird tangents, like, he just didn't stay focused. And, I don't know, he, like, took. The bait in some of the things. Like she. She would say something and try to get him fuming, like, come at his ego or something like that, like how he was born into $400 million of assets or whatever it be from his dad or how he went bankrupt six times. Like, he seemed to be like, just, you know, when she came as ego, he would try to make it more about himself. And it's not about himself. It's about the people in America. It's about, you know, in Kamala just came across like she was completely fabricated. Like, it was completely just regurgitated. You could tell she was trying to rehearse or to regurgitate what she rehearsed in every response. It seemed like she almost had the script. So, like, again, it just, it felt like every response, Trump would then go towards the border. Everything was about the border and immigration. I mean, like, hey, like, hey, your taxes are gonna go. Go up with this. You know, Trump's hidden, hidden tax or whatever. And be like, I would have said, like, listen, my tax. I know where my marginal tax rates are. And it looks like you're copying a lot of your predecessors. You know, your current, your current boss and your old bosses, and you're regurgitating all of this that we just saw what you posted on your website. I'm gonna assume that you're going to go back to the Obama tax rules because I'm sure you can't. Like, you can't come up with something on your own. And if that happens, everyone listening today, your taxes are going up 15% to 20%. Well, I think. Mic drop. Mic drop. That's it. I think a good strategy he should have had was to, you know, ask her questions and stop his response and give her her time. Because I think, like, they're given that response there. I would have been like, you know, what is your tax plan? You're saying that you're gonna do all this stuff. What is, what is your plan? I know what my plan is. We're gonna go. We're gonna keep the current low tax cuts that I gave to all middle class Americas. We did it for four years. What are you actually going to do? Don't talk about, like, talk about what you might do from a hypothetical standpoint, what actually you're going to do. And she wouldn't have a response. She goes, I want to talk about the future. You want to talk about the past? And I'd be like, I do want to talk about the past. I think everyone around here would say, four years ago, I'm in a better spot. I'm paying less in everything across my entire life. Like, yeah, I do want to talk about the past, but you want to talk about the future. You keep on bringing up January 6. You're bringing up my lawsuits. We're talking about the past. Like, let's talk about the future. But, like, why don't we bring back some of this stuff? Even the. I mean, like, you couldn't think of stuff like that. Even the abortion. Abortion stuff. I don't want to go too deep into the abortion stuff. But, you know, he did try to go like, I gave power back to the states. I gave power back to the voters. Like the. It's more of a democracy now because people have the right to now vote in the laws that they want to do. If you, the people of a certain state, feel like they want to have abortion, then they can vote that into that state. But the key thing is there, he could have gone way more libertarian perspective there and even gone deeper than he did talking about how if I'm president, I want to give power back to you. I don't want the federal government to be in your door all the time in your life. I think people are tired, even if you're Democrat, Republican. I think a lot of people are tired of the Democrat or, I'm sorry, the government being involved in their life so much. Yeah. Now they're talking about, like, you know, second debate. And then they're, like, a lot of people are saying, like, Harris doesn't need to second a debate after the. Well, she wants one because she raised 4% now in the polls after this debate, or at least the betting odds. 4% of the betting odds, and he dropped 4%. So it's pretty clear that the average american right now thinks that Harris won that debate. I wouldn't disagree. I think she did better than the bar was set, and she tried to get more emotional than Trump did, like, try to appeal to them. I think you're right. She outperformed what we were all expecting. But, you know, I think the House speaker, what's his name? Johnson, Mike Johnson, came out and said, oh, yeah, I'm looking at all the polls, and, you know, the one poll was like, Trump won by 70%, Kamlo did 18%. And the rest, the other 12% was from the moderators. All right, so, I mean, I don't know. I think, like, Fox already put a thing out there saying, hey, we'll do one for you guys. Right? So they're looking at October. Biggest thing, the market. How's the market reacting? So, historically, the market is between September and October. If the market is up, the incumbent wins. So that would make a Harris win. If between September and October, the market's down, it would mean an incumbent loss. Well, September, we're already down 2.53%. So that would, the market is telling us, historically, at least, that it would be a Trump win. Well, I found it interesting. So now if we think that Harris is now above in the polls, I don't know, the market should be ripping soon. Well, I find it very interesting this morning that the market was down a little bit until the CPI print came out. The CPI print just came in a little hotter month over month, I believe, than was expected. But before that data came out, yields were down and the market was down as well a little bit. And when yields are down, I wonder what that's pricing in, because a lot of people are concerned that if Trump got in there with a tariff kind of situation, that inflationary pressures would exist. That's what market's down, bond yields are down. Right. So that means people are, what, selling stocks and buying bonds? Correct. Right. So that's what that means in English. Right. So, yeah, people are kind of confused on what's about to happen. So a still of coin flip toss on this? I think so, yeah. Yesterday was probably somewhat of a non event. Probably in the favor of a little bit. Harris. Yeah, I agree. I, when, when you watch these things, it is, um, it's very disheartening to hear both of their answers because they seem to be targeting an audience that is not too, not too bright. You know, just going right after the headline issues, and there are so many problems that are going on right now, and we don't seem to talk about any of those big problems. And it gets really frustrating because, yeah, you know, obviously, I'm not a big Kamala Harris supporter, but at the same point in time, the performance by Trump was not great. You know, pretty much across the board could have done a much better job. And, you know, it's, I understand the, the sentiment where, you know, September, October can be a good predictor, but, you know, we've laid out the democratic tax plan over the last couple weeks because it's so bad. Yeah. Like, if that happens, there's gonna be huge issues for the market next year. So, I mean, like, even though with the border, we gotta wrap this up, but, like, even the border, you know, one of his responses is like, you blocked it. I'm like, I'm not even an office. I don't even, I don't know, I am not even an office to have a say in anything. What are you talking about? And on top of that, like, yeah, these bills that you wanted to pass were laden with additional spending. That's why it got blown up. Yeah, you put the border bill out there or whatever they called it, but it was laced with all these other things to spend more money. And the Republicans said enough spending. So, yeah, you wrapped it up and got it decline because. Well, the same, same exact thing this time. Yeah, the same thing. You can just, you can just walk in, you can just walk in the White House, wake up Joe and close the border. Like, you don't need to have a bill pass for anything. You're, you're getting other agenda, agenda items passed that are not relevant to the border. Yeah. So that, again, that's all you have to say. I hate also, I'll give my last opinion here. I, the whole stuff about him winning the 2020 election and it being rigged still. Yeah, that kind of thought process. I mean, he's got to get away from that. What do you say? By a whisker? Yeah. Joking about a whis. There's a sarcasm. Then the debate, of course. Host said, like, oh, I did not how I heard it. Yeah, all that's. But he's got to get away from that. Like, again, that is old news. Like, if he wants to win this one, let's just go say, okay, I'll admit it. I buy the numbers. I lost that election. Okay, let's not look forward to this one. And I'm going to win this election. I mean, he started talking about pipelines. No one cared. Like, no, the average person, the average person doesn't care. Even though I talk about, I've been talking about, actually, the German, how they're being fed oil right now a lot. That's a very important economic thing that's going on, especially with Russia, Ukraine, war going on and why a Trump presidency would be great for natural gas, you know, great for oil, because we would turn on the spigots here. And then Germany could rely less on the pipeline bill from Russia because it is kind of society's view that you shouldn't be getting Russia or russian oil right now. But that is important. But the average person has no idea what's actually happening over with Russia or german pipeline. So it's just, you know, the disconnect you can obviously see there. All right. All right. Well, we will see what happens with this election as we get closer and closer. But thanks for listening this week. If you guys have any questions or comments, show ideas, hit us up at info@swpconnect.com and we'll talk to you next week. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any investment, legal, financial, or tax strategy. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. Please consult a qualified professional about your individual needs.