Bitcoin Spot ETF, Office Vacancy, CEO's Leaving in 2023, Ep. #211

In this week's episode of the Capitalist Investor Podcast, Derek and Luke discuss the latest events shaking up the world of finance and investing. They delve into the SEC's approval and subsequent investigation of a bitcoin ETF, the record number of CEOs leaving their positions in 2023, and the wild story of an Alaska Airlines flight experiencing a fuselage issue. The hosts also touch on the challenges and complexities of the modern economy, and share their thoughts on the future of office space and executive leadership. Listen in for insightful, lighthearted commentary and a glimpse into the unpredictable world of finance. If you want to stay informed and entertained, don't miss this exciting episode!

1. SEC Approval Drama for Bitcoin ETF

The episode kicks off with a discussion about the SEC's approval of a bitcoin ETF, which triggered significant market volatility. However, the plot thickens when the SEC announced that the approval tweet was posted in error, leading to suspicions of market manipulation. Derek and Luke engage in a series of speculations about the potential impact of this incident on the future of bitcoin and its regulatory oversight.

2. Record High Office Vacancies in 2023

The podcast delves into the implications of the record vacancy rate in offices across the United States, highlighting the magnitude of the shift in working dynamics due to remote work and evolving economic trends. The hosts discuss the potential repurposing of office spaces and its association with the evolution of the economy, technology, and the need for adaptability in a rapidly changing business landscape.

3. Surge in CEO Departures

Another fascinating topic explored in the episode involves the staggering surge in the number of CEOs leaving their positions in 2023. The hosts speculate about the underlying reasons for this trend, touching upon factors such as economic uncertainty, stress, and the emergence of younger executives taking leadership roles in companies.

4. Terrifying Airline Incident and the Miracle of the iPhone

The podcast takes a dramatic turn as the hosts recount the harrowing experience of an Alaska Airlines flight where a section of the fuselage detached mid-flight. The subsequent discovery of an iPhone that survived a 16,000-foot fall prompts a discussion on the astonishing resilience of modern technology and the potential dire consequences if the incident had occurred at a higher altitude.

5. Mysterious Shadow Aliens Encounter

The episode concludes with a captivating discussion surrounding the bizarre sighting of eight-foot-tall shadow aliens in Miami, accompanied by a massive police response and subsequent media blackout. The hosts expound on the allure of disconnecting from technology and immersing oneself in nature, advocating for a balanced approach in consuming media while maintaining mental well-being.

The Capitalist Investor podcast continues to deliver gripping insights into the dynamic world of finance, innovation, and the peculiar incidents that captivate our imagination. Join Derek, Tony, and Luke as they explore these intriguing topics, offering seasoned perspectives and fostering a deeper understanding of the complexities within the investment landscape.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are for general informational purposes and should not be considered as specific advice or recommendations for investment, financial, or legal decisions. Listeners are encouraged to consult with qualified professionals for personalized guidance tailored to their individual needs.

Transcript

0:00

You. Hello, and welcome to this week's episode of the Capitalist Investor. You have me back this week, diamond Hands. D hope everyone out there is doing well. Cool hand Luke. What's going on, my man? How are we? What a start to 2024, man. The past two weeks, a lot of stuff's been happening. It's a new banger every single day. 2023 was. We were excited to put that behind us. Yeah, I think we should have stayed in 2023. I think that's what a lot of people wanted. But we're here now, so let's talk about a few things. Tony got a bunch of stuff going on today, so the two of us will handle it. But, hey, before we dive in, did you see there's another cool hand Luke out there? Did you see this? Oh, no. Why? How so? I was watching sports, and apparently darts over in the UK is a big thing. It's huge. Have you ever. I've watched it. I was at a bar one day and they had it on. It was getting pretty intense. I'm just, like. I got, like, a found new love for darts, and I started playing it actually with my budy. It's pretty cool. It's wild. Yeah. People were going crazy, but, yeah, I only looked because. Or I only heard about it. There was a 16 year old. Did you hear about this guy throwing some darts? He made it all the way to the finals of the big tournament over there. It's like a huge, kind of, like, stadium set up just with, like, rows of pub tables, people just going crazy. He's throwing some heat. Oh, yeah. He made it all the way to the finals. 16 years old. That's insane. Yeah. But cool hand Luke Humphreys actually took him down in the finals. I had to go over there and fight him, man. Yeah. You can't be stealing my name like that. I had never thought about going to the UK to watch darts, but it looked awesome. We should get a dartboard here when we need to take our mind off things. Just start playing. We should have, like, a dart competition. Make it big over here in the Cleveland area. I have one in my basement. Never been used. Really? Well, I'm coming over sometime. I'm doing the golf simulator that you have. It's in the golf simulator room. Yeah, yeah, I'm doing the golf simulator and we're playing darts sometime, man. Awesome. Let's do it. But we got a lot to talk about, so kind of a last minute topic. So the SEC. We thought they had proved a bitcoin ETF. That's been a big topic for the last six months or so. So we'll hit on that real quick. And then a bunch of lighthearted articles, I think, that we found. So office vacations hit a record high in 2023. Not shocking there. A record number of ceos left in 2023. So we'll talk about that record bankruptcies as well. 2008, 2009 and Alaska Airline, that nightmare scenario we saw unfold with part of the plane ripping off. There's an interesting story substory to that. So we'll hit on that real quick. All right, so let's talk about bitcoin. So SEC comes out

yesterday right after the market closes. 400 and 05: 3:13

00 p.m. On Twitter or X, whatever one you want to call it, and said that they have approved a spot bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin skyrocketed $2,000 and then sold off $5,000. Just volatility, like crazy buying and selling, tons of volume coming in. And then 10 minutes, like 415 after they put the tweet out, they said that they were hacked or an intern maybe, but who knows? Someone posted something they shouldn't have and they basically now have to investigate themselves for market manipulation. Isn't that funny? Yes, it is hilarious. That probably shouldn't be making light of it since it's obviously a very serious subject. But it opens up even because we've seen stuff like this happen before where news has gotten out on X or Twitter that has moved the market in some direction that turns out not to be true. And with everyone trading with real time information, basically, it's very easy to get sucked up into those not true rumors or however it happened. I don't know. Do you really think it was a leak or do you think. I think scenario is that someone scheduled the tweet to come out and they put the wrong time in or something like that. I think there was just a mistake on that end. Yeah, that's probably. I think actually, Elon Musk investigated into it from the back end and found out exactly what happened. And he said that they weren't hacked. From his research. They were not hacked. They weren't hacked from their end. They possibly were hacked. It came from a phone. The two step verification, the phone that was linked up to there, potentially something could have gone wrong. So either it could have been a scheduled tweet or it could have been someone actually did hack into the phone that was linked to that account. Yeah. That's wild. Just wild, wild stuff. What do you think? So now that this approval has. It has to be close to happening. We've been hearing about it for. So there's conspiracy theories out there that are saying that it's possibility that because they did this, they can now extend the length of when or when it will not get approved. Right. Because now that they have to investigate themselves, essentially for launching this wrong tweet gives them more leeway and time to actually not approve it by the deadline today or yesterday. If you listen to this podcast. Wow, look who just showed up from somewhere else. I don't know where you were at. I'm sorry, I had to pop in. I'm here in spirit. Hi, guys. What's up, man? It's Tony. We miss you. I know. Doing bigger and better things. Yeah. Last week. I got to go, but I just had to come and say hi to both of you and anyone who may be listening. But, man, what you and I taught Luke and I talked about, we got some emails about our stock picking extravaganza. Good God. This is why you have a balanced portfolio. I picked Boeing and literally the doors are falling off. They're blowing off, man. And then what? Match.com loves in the air, baby. Yeah, it was funny. It came out the gate 13 plus and finished up three or something like. Man, it's been a volatile start for you, Tony. Start is definitely something to say about it. But anyway, just thought I'd come and say hi, guys. All right, well, thanks for stopping by. We'll watch those stock picks. I told you I was going to get in here with the cameo. You're getting a little too close to my face, Tony. I don't like. No, no. I think, you know, Tony had to come in here because we have gotten some emails, actually, from listeners of the podcast and clients saying, hey, here's some stock picks you talked about last week, and Tony's has been on fire, both good and bad. Literally almost on fire. Right, with the Boeing thing. So I think Tony had to come in here and explain himself a little. He, uh, he just can't stay away. Just loves his podcast, man. Yep. All right, well, we'll see what happens with the SEC today. Really. So the day before the pod comes out, it's going to get approved. In my opinion, there's no reason not to. And plus, regulatory oversight, whether it's good or bad for bitcoin, I don't know if it's good or bad. I really don't know if this bitcoin ETF is good or bad, frankly, because it does put decentralization centralized. It's not really what's supposed to be right. That's exactly right. So I don't know if it's good or bad, but I do think it's going to get approved. Just like people buying the bitcoin into their coinbase wallet or whatever. No point at all. No point. The whole reason of bitcoin is to put it on a hard drive, flash drive and keep it for yourself if the world was ending. Yep. All right, so we'll talk more about the SEC approval or non approval of bitcoin, I'm sure, as the weeks go by, but probably going to get through today and we'll see what happens with the price there. But not surprising, news offices around America hit a new vacancy record. Looks like about almost 20% of the office space out there is not least, which is the highest since 1979, which is a wild stat right there, honestly. So we've been talking about this theme for a while now. I think it's not directly related, but what is that office like you can kind of rent out? Yes. So there's one of those in the Beechwood mall, right? Yes. So I'm not sure if it's that specific brand, but it's that concept. And it replaced a restaurant and a bunch of other stuff there because they couldn't obviously get the retail space. And that is officially failed. That is closing up. So lots of repurposing ideas out there for all this different office space, but hard to imagine based on all the new policies. Work from home, all that stuff that we're going to recover a lot from that number, it seems. Well, I don't think we are fully ever going to recover. The economy is different and changed, especially with what we talk about all the time, technology and artificial intelligence. I still just want to get this across. Anybody that's working from home, especially all the time, working from home. I'm not talking even just hybrid. If you're working from home all the time, you need to think to yourself, how important is my job? And can technology replace my job in the next ten years? Yes. If the answer to that is it's a possibility that I get replaced the next ten years, you better get back to the office as quick as possible and learn a new skill. Yes, absolutely. That's my take. That is a great take. That's exactly what's going to happen. I've been saying this for a long time. People who run businesses, ceos, owners, entrepreneurs, they are not happy, I would say, in general, about all these new trends about work from home. I've been saying this since 2020. Working from home drives ceos bonkers. It's hard to manage. We've all seen the Zoom calls and 60 people on a Zoom call. How efficient are we? I think Mark talks about this quite a bit as well, where at some point the tide is going to turn, the script is going to flip and the employees are not going to have all the power like they have right now. And it's kind of going to normalize a little bit more. And what Luke just said is absolutely spot on. In my opinion. There's going to be a breaking point at some point in the future and it's probably not going to be pretty. Now. The question for me, Derek, is what happens to all this office space? Because the question isn't whether or not people return back to work, it's whether they get replaced, I think. Right. So you have all this office space that will need to be turned into something. We're just literally going to be sitting there and someone's going to be left holding the bag and bankruptcies will take up in real estate. So what's going to be the repurpose, you think, warehouses from goods being shipped? What are these going to be turned into? That's a multibillion dollar question too, because if you can turn these into something that people want to go to and be in, there's a lot of money. To be, you know, so everything can't become an Amazon warehouse. Right. We've seen that locally here with, was it Randall Park Mall that had. It was shut down essentially for years and years and years and then that got repurposed into an Amazon facility. There's a massive brand new Amazon facility by my house. I drive through it in Bedford area and even by the office, one exit down from us, there was a huge shopping center that only giant eagle was in and they completely redid that. And there's a chipotle over there. That's why I know, of course that's the reason, but they are using that as well. So there appears to be demand at least a little bit. I don't think it's just going to all dry up overnight, automatic or dry up overnight. But that is the million dollar question. There's only so much warehousing space and skateboarding parks you can build out, cloud server warehouses. Seriously, AI technology gets built out, you're going to need to put these servers and technology somewhere. Right? I don't know, there's all kinds of. You got to think about the new economy to really see what are people behaviors doing what do people want to do or what are businesses doing that the space will be needed for? I don't know. It's an important question. We can maybe dig deeper over the next couple of years on that. Yes, absolutely. That's going to be a huge trend. There's also the financial component behind it, too. We've talked a lot about that with the debt, essentially. I've talked to buddies who are in the renting housing business. I've got one buddy who owns their, their company owns several apartment buildings in New York City. And all that debt is coming due. And when it does come due and they have to refinance at higher rates, they're going to be marginally profitable at best. So when all this debt comes due, the banks are going to have a choice, right, to kind of go hellfire and brimstone, where no one makes money and they're foreclosing on people, or are they going to work with these people to figure out a solution? It's a lot easier to do that when you have tenants and people in the building. When they're not in the building, then that's where it becomes a massive problem all at once. All right, so record number of ceos left their companies in 2023, a new report finds. So it looks like 1170. That seems like a lot. Ceos left their post in 2023. That's a 50% increase from the prior year. So what do you think on this one, Luke? I think ceos are taking, with the market hitting all time highs or growing at least last year and doing pretty well and valuations coming back, I think a lot of ceos are just saying, well, I weathered the storm over the past two or three years, and things aren't too bad right now. Let me leave before things actually get bad. Yes. I think that's just kind of the mentality is everyone was stressed out the past three years. When you're running a company, if you're in a company, all the volatility, as in volatility in the economy, unknowns of the economy, people. I mean, have you seen pictures of some of these ceos, like, in three years, how much they've aged? Oh, yeah. People that didn't have wrinkles now have wrinkles. People that didn't have spots underneath their eyes, now have spots underneath their eyes. It's aged people, man. It's aged me. I feel like I'm already going gray. Past three years have been crazy, man. Yeah, they really have. I'd say consolidation as well is probably an additional thing that you could possibly point to, but I think Luke pretty much nailed it on this one. Hey, well, things are kind of going okay. There's some money on the table for me if I leave. I think I'm just going to take that and piece on audio. I'll take my 25,$30 million, whatever it be, $100 million, and do my own thing. Relax, enjoy my next ten years of life, because that's all I've got. Because I've stressed out so much the past three years. Right. That kind of mentality. Yeah, but I mean, there's just so much more that has been put on their plate here in the last couple of years. It's much more difficult to run a business. Also, here's the thing, too, is I think a lot of ceos, I firmly believe this, whether it's good or bad. There's some scary things, too. There's some bad to it. But you're seeing younger generations step into leadership roles a lot more. I think it's no longer the 65, 75 year old ceos you're now seeing like the 45 year old, 50 year old ceos stepping in. Right. You're getting younger when it comes to executive teams, which I don't know if that's good or bad. It's good to adapt to the new economy and understand the new economy because things are technologically more driven than they were for previous generations. But also the experience sometimes is something you had to factor in as well. Right? For sure. And I think a lot of younger people, just speaking from my peers and people I know that are in kind of really important roles, a lot of the people I know sometimes get an ego and they think they know it all. And the thing is with being executive, these executive teams, the mentality they have to have is they have to understand that they don't know everything. They have to rely on a team behind them and important consultants or whatever be to make sure they make the right decision. So you're going to see some companies do well because they're able to adapt, but some companies also not do well because they have egos attached to them. That's another quick observation, I think. Agreed. All right, well, let's wrap things up this week with a pretty wild story. So I think we've all heard about the Alaska Airlines flight at this point, where kind of a section of the fuselage came off the plane. So full flight of people flying around up there with a giant hole in the side of the plane tony was talking about. Yeah, just wild. They've actually subsequently grounded all of those planes and found more problems, which Tony knows about. But this story was pretty crazy. So an Oregon man claims to have found an iPhone that fell 16,000ft from that flight, which apparently he found still in airplane mode. So I don't know why, when I drop my phone from like two and a half, two and a half feet, it shatters. But an iPhone falling out of the sky from 16,000ft still works just fine when it lands. Conspiracy theorist, man. Trying to get you to buy that new iPhone. Titanium. There's a little button in there. Once it hits two years old, it automatically weakens the glass. Yeah, man, this is insane. First of all, I want to talk about the plane. They were only at like 15,000ft. And when depressurization happens, all that matters essentially is the pressure inside the plane compared to the outside of the plane. And at 15,000ft, the pressure is a lot less than it is at 35,000ft, cruising altitude. Right. So if they were actually at 35,000ft and this were to happen, if this was in cruise, they were cruising up above, like, getting their destination, this probably would have ended a lot differently, man. There's three lap babies and the pressurization. They felt the pressurization change and they felt like things trying to go out of this small door or whatever it be, at 15,000ft, 35,000ft, those babies probably would have came off the laps and through that door or anything on your laps and not strapped in. That's scary. This could have been a lot different. Or if they were over, I think the ocean, that could have been ended differently. So that iPhone, somehow, like you said, it survived. And the door, they found the door in the teacher's backyard, I think. Yeah, but, yeah, if that happens at 35,000ft, you can't breathe at that point. I know that you have to have the mass. Your ears are probably shot. Your ears, drums are blown out. And they're asking, the crazy thing is united or not? I'm sorry, not united. Alaska. Alaskan. United has the biggest fleet, another 737s, Alaskan Airlines, where this happened to, they're offering people on the plane like $1,500. I probably would never fly again. I mean, I was very close not flying again after what happened to me. I told you, the listeners down in Sarasota, which was very minimal compared to this, if this happened, I would want a lot more than $1,500. Mental health is not going to get it done. And two free united passes for the lounge. There's babies never flying again. I'll tell you that. They're traumatized rest of their life. So I was out last week. So any good conspiracy theories happened so far in 2024? Miami, man. Yeah. That's wild stuff. Shadow aliens. Eight foot tall shadow aliens in Miami. I saw that. That's wild. And 102 hundred police cars showed up. I don't know what happened, but the pictures of those police cars, I've never seen so many police cars all in one place. So what's your take, man? There's no one's talking. I saw one of the higher ranking members of the police force. There's a video of his son facetiming him, like, asking him what went on, and he's like, I can't talk about it. Oh, I saw that. Yeah. So no one's talking. No one knows if it's true or not. There seemed to be conflicting reports that flights were stopped, Internet was out, power was out. It was a wild scene. One thing, I just can't wait to. Buy my cabin and just turn my phone off. Just go. Completely go off grid. I told you, man hunting. I think I told the listeners, I went hunting, like, a month ago. The best thing I've ever done in my life. Sat tree stands, getting 7 hours just sitting, literally just connecting with nature. And that was probably the best and most at peace I felt in four years. Yeah, it doesn't happen enough these days, that is for sure. People getting outside. If you want to be happier, turn your damn phone off. That's just stop listening to media, like, relax. Anyway, appreciate everyone listening. Yeah, absolutely. And if you have any hot takes, like criticizing Tony's picks, send them in. Or any hot topics that you want us talk about, because this year has been pretty crazy already. Yes. And didn't he win the whole competition last year? No. So, okay, here's the rankings, official rankings. I came in second place by 50 basis points, 0.5%. Tony came in third place, actually. So Matt Geary, one of our cfas props to him. Shout out to him. He came in first place. He was up like, I don't know, 55% with his three stocks. I was up like 54 and a half percent with my three stocks. Tony was like, up like 48%. And then shout out to Rob Lambert, who was our loser. Oh, man. Going to have to pay for this good old big dinner we're about to have. Sounds good. That sounds real good. You guys going to marble room? Payback from me losing a couple of years ago. Yeah, we're going to marble room. We're going to have some wagyu, and I'm going to have, like, a $200 whiskey, the most expensive thing I'll probably ever drink in my life. Nice. All right, well, that'll do it for us this week. Thanks everyone out there for listening. I think all three of us will be back next week, so that'll be good. That'll be the first time this year. If you guys have questions, comments, show ideas, hit us up at info@swpconnect.com and we'll talk to you next week. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any investment, legal, financial, or tax strategy. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. Please consult a qualified professional about your individual needs.