Welcome to the Capitalist Investor, where your finance meets foresight. This is Derek, joined by Tony and Luke, and today we unpacked the shifting sands of the real estate market—why new homes might just be your best bet and how markets adjust to keep the game fair. We peeled back the layers of mortgage rates, down payments, and the debt dilemma that keeps many from the keys to their own property. From the towering price tags in Manhattan to the concerns of overbuilding, our discussion cut through the complexities of an overextended market.
We touched on the paradox of Charlie's billion-dollar candy investment and the daily grind of hardworking folks treading the financial waters. We analyzed the influence of inflation on the middle class, scrutinized SKIMS' soaring valuation, and carved out some time for Thanksgiving tales. We paid tribute to legends like Charlie Munger and dived headfirst into the murky waters of potential Fed rate cuts, market rallies, and IPOs that have us raising an eyebrow.
1. The passing of Charlie Munger
Recalling the legacies of investing giants like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, the hosts reminded listeners of the importance of long-term investing and owning equity in businesses. Buffett's success, they noted, was a testament to the advantages of large ownership stakes and privileged access to company insights.
2. The Surge in New Home Builds and Its Market Impact
Derek highlighted the rising affordability of constructing new homes compared to buying existing ones. A boon to potential homebuyers, this trend is expected to lead to a sharp increase in new house builds over the next few decades. Despite concerns about overbuilding, the hosts agreed that the free market would naturally adjust to the increasing supply.
3. Real Estate Market Concerns Amid Shifts in Ownership Trends
Diving deeper into real estate, Tony discussed the nuanced variations between urban and non-urban markets. With a slight dip in Manhattan's price per square foot failing to deter the necessity-driven purchasing, conversations veered towards pressing questions about builder profit margins and a potentially overextended market bracing for shifts in home ownership and apartment vacancies.
4. Personal Finance Struggles and Success Stories
The conversation took a personal turn as the hosts recounted the struggles of a nurse living paycheck to paycheck, illustrating the often harsh reality for many middle-class Americans.
5. The Precarious State of Markets and Upcoming IPO Skepticism
As the episode wound down, the hosts shared his prediction of a market devoid of strong rallies, emphasizing the lack of positive catalysts and the looming threat of Black Swan events. They also voiced skepticism over the high valuations of companies in fast fashion, beauty products, and tech sectors gearing up for their IPOs, questioning their long-term investment value.
Stay tuned for the next episode where Derek, Tony, and Luke will continue their exploration of the capricious world of investment and the implications for individual capitalists.
#CapitalistInvestorPodcast #HousingMarket #InvestmentStrategies #PersonalFinance #RealEstateInvesting #MarketAnalysis #EconomicTrends #FinancialPodcast
Welcome to the Capitalist Investor, where your finance meets foresight. This is Derek, joined by Tony and Luke, and today we unpacked the shifting sands of the real estate market—why new homes might just be your best bet and how markets adjust to keep the game fair. We peeled back the layers of mortgage rates, down payments, and the debt dilemma that keeps many from the keys to their own property. From the towering price tags in Manhattan to the concerns of overbuilding, our discussion cut through the complexities of an overextended market.
We touched on the paradox of Charlie's billion-dollar candy investment and the daily grind of hardworking folks treading the financial waters. We analyzed the influence of inflation on the middle class, scrutinized SKIMS' soaring valuation, and carved out some time for Thanksgiving tales. We paid tribute to legends like Charlie Munger and dived headfirst into the murky waters of potential Fed rate cuts, market rallies, and IPOs that have us raising an eyebrow.
1. The passing of Charlie Munger
Recalling the legacies of investing giants like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, the hosts reminded listeners of the importance of long-term investing and owning equity in businesses. Buffett's success, they noted, was a testament to the advantages of large ownership stakes and privileged access to company insights.
2. The Surge in New Home Builds and Its Market Impact
Derek highlighted the rising affordability of constructing new homes compared to buying existing ones. A boon to potential homebuyers, this trend is expected to lead to a sharp increase in new house builds over the next few decades. Despite concerns about overbuilding, the hosts agreed that the free market would naturally adjust to the increasing supply.
3. Real Estate Market Concerns Amid Shifts in Ownership Trends
Diving deeper into real estate, Tony discussed the nuanced variations between urban and non-urban markets. With a slight dip in Manhattan's price per square foot failing to deter the necessity-driven purchasing, conversations veered towards pressing questions about builder profit margins and a potentially overextended market bracing for shifts in home ownership and apartment vacancies.
4. Personal Finance Struggles and Success Stories
The conversation took a personal turn as the hosts recounted the struggles of a nurse living paycheck to paycheck, illustrating the often harsh reality for many middle-class Americans.
5. The Precarious State of Markets and Upcoming IPO Skepticism
As the episode wound down, the hosts shared his prediction of a market devoid of strong rallies, emphasizing the lack of positive catalysts and the looming threat of Black Swan events. They also voiced skepticism over the high valuations of companies in fast fashion, beauty products, and tech sectors gearing up for their IPOs, questioning their long-term investment value.
Stay tuned for the next episode where Derek, Tony, and Luke will continue their exploration of the capricious world of investment and the implications for individual capitalists.
#CapitalistInvestorPodcast #HousingMarket #InvestmentStrategies #PersonalFinance #RealEstateInvesting #MarketAnalysis #EconomicTrends #FinancialPodcast
Hello and welcome to this week's episode of The Capitalist Investor. As always, you have me, Diamond Hands D, and we got the whole crew here. Tony the Tiger and Cool Hands Luke. What's going on, guys? How we doing? Good, man. Got through. Got through Thanksgiving. Oh, yeah. Made a smoked turkey. That's the way to oh, did you? Yeah. It's just so juicy. I love it. Turned out good. It was fantastic. Nice. It really was. Know everyone what used to bacon them deep fried turkeys? Are they're juicy? And I found out that smoking a turkey it was a turkey breast is what I smoked. Not the whole turkey. It was just the turkey breast. But it was good, man. It was requested to come back next year. Oh, look at that. You know, you did a good job then. Yeah, I survived New York City. I had a lot of anxiety flying in on, you know, literally as I was flying in, there's protests going on in the streets and stuff like that. The Thanksgiving parade protests and stuff. So as I was flying in, that was happening. So they just gave me extreme anxiety. I hate flying now. There were protest parades protesting the Thanksgiving. Yeah. And then you could just tell on the flight, everyone was just stressed for some reason. Just anxiety levels through the roof because of just the holidays and flying. I don't know, I didn't like it very much. Did that protest make it onto the broadcast? Was that live? Yeah, it was. Yeah. Fun stuff where they do like, bum rush the parade. Yeah. Basically it was like the climate change well, it was actually about the Israel Hamas, but climate change protest actually took the climate change coalition took credit for it. So what the hell? I'm sorry, I talked about this on Maria. Like, what the hell does climate change have to do with the ridiculous? This world we live in is ridiculous, guys. I'm tired of it. I really am. Yeah, it's exhausting. It really is. What we got today? All right, today we'll talk a little Charlie Munger rip. We'll talk about some viral videos going around talking about cost of living, things like that. I saw that one right when it came out, so I thought it was interesting. New IPO. Lots of people are talking about it. Lots of people talking about it. So we'll dive into that. We'll see if we think it has legs. Amazon, obviously, Black Friday sales. We'll talk about that. Talk about the Santa Claus rally. See if that's going to happen or not. And we'll do a canceled talking about home prices because they are up there. Let's just say that. Just keep going up. Make me happy. Just keep going up. All right. Charlie from Rest in Peace. Yes. He passed away. It was 40 plus years with Berkshire Hathaway, right? Dude, he passed away one month from his 100th birthday. That's crazy. Almost 100 years old, and he said the one thing he regrets never doing in his entire life was not catching a 200 pound tuna. I was reading that. He's like, that's the one thing he said. But as I was kind of reading different venues of things I had to say about Didn't, I found this very fascinating. In the last month or two, Charlie came out and said that Elon Musk, this might be his last prediction. Maybe he goes, Elon Musk is outclassed by the head of China's. BYD, they are the China dominant EV company. They sell more EVs in China than Elon. And he basically said he's being outclassed and is poised to take over the global sales from Tesla. That's a big call. Charlie, interesting take there. But the one interesting thing I found, the one thing that BYD is trying to do is they're trying to lead a revolution of sodium powered EV batteries versus the lithiumion batteries that Elon and everyone else uses. So if they can figure that out, maybe you don't need as many rare earth minerals to replace a battery in a car. I don't know. I want to focus on the legacy he left. Yeah, I went down to. I love it. So Warren Buffett and Charlie, they were the Wall Street titans that kind of just changed how the business operated, the style books, people's, philosophies and mindsets. And I think we got to go sometimes not fully back to their style. I think the game's changed a little bit, but there's some takeaways I want to hit on real quick in this fast paced technological world, information world. Back when they started this up in the access to information was none. No one really had anything besides newspaper to get information from. Right. These guys really just understood, hey, let's find a trend, stick with the trend, and find companies, companies that are priced properly and stick with those for the next 60, 70 years, right. That we know this trend is going to be around the next 50 years. I think right now we've kind of gotten away from that. Not us, but I'm saying society as a whole, from an investing standpoint, they want that instant gratification. It has turned into more of a gambling thing, hey, let's make a big change every couple of days and just buy and sell day, trade, whatever it be. You have to look at a company like ownership. It's equity ownership in a business. Right. You own part of that business, and you should want to partake in whatever you're investing in for the long term. And I think we sometimes got to get back to that style and that way of thinking, not just, hey, it's money, it's fake money. It's just these dollars and cents on your brokerage account going up and down. It's, hey, let's look at this like ownership, like Warren Buffett and Charlie did, and it made them very rich. Yeah, I mean, it's like a lot of the stocks that we own in our company portfolios. There's a reason behind it. We have a macro story behind it. It's backed up with fundamental analysis of same philosophy that Warren and Charlie have done, but they also probably had the privilege of saying, hey, it's Warren Buffett. Can I come visit your company for a week and check it out? When you own 40% of Coca Cola? Sure. You can call up anybody and be like, hey, I'm coming in. I want to take a look at your company. I'm interested. Yeah, roll out the red carpet. Right. Doing some of this reading about Charlie and that. I guess one of his biggest victories for Berkshire was I want to say it was maybe 20 years ago he made a proposal to Warren that they buy this candy company, and at the time, they spent $25 million for this company that only had $4 million of sales or something like that. So it was a very rich premium. And 20 years later, that company makes $2 billion a year. Wow. What a call. That's just probably one of many, but I'm sure that was maybe one of his biggest home runs. It's a culprit of loving what you do. Those two guys loved what they did. And they didn't live excessively, either. They didn't live with the Lamborghini, and they didn't do it to make money. They did it because they loved what they did. That's one thing I respect about Charlie. And yep, for sure. All right, so next topic. I kind of labeled it Bidenomics, but I saw this clip when it came out. It was basically a nurse talking on TikTok or whatever the social media platform was. And it got, I think, about a million and a half views in a couple of days. And it's just kind of going to the point that I've noticed I mentioned I have to get a new car. I do the family shopping every week at Costco. And when you sit back and you think about how much stuff used to cost, and then you just look at what it costs right now, I can see how these types of clips happen. Basically just being overwhelmed. Right. The point was, she was working. She's a nurse. Her husband's working. They have a couple of kids, and just with the cost of living, the inflation, they basically have no wiggle room. They're not putting anything in savings, and they're living paycheck to paycheck with two pretty good paying jobs. Actually. They have four jobs. The husband works as a security guard and a personal trainer. They clean an office on the weekends, and she's a registered nurse. So you add that up, that's four jobs. Yeah. I think it speaks to the point of what a lot of people are feeling, because this is dragging on, as we've been talking about for a while now. Do we think there's any relief in sight to any of this? Or do we think a lot of these price increases are now permanent and this is the new normal and everyone's just going to have to figure it out? I'm going to say this is worse now than it's been in probably a couple of years or decade, but this is nothing new. People have been struggling in middle class America for a very long time, decades upon decades. Nothing's ever perfect. Right now, what I think it's more of an issue of is the lack of education, of how the system works. I think the fact that people perceive they have to work three, four jobs is not necessarily a problem on the system itself. It's more of a problem of how do you get a skill, how do you develop something for yourself to add productivity to the current system, whatever it be, to work one job and be very good at that one job, to put more resources in your pocket in some sort of way. Right. I think that's the bigger issue at play. The education component, the college education system that teaches you, hey, you got to get a degree, and then you're owed the $100,000 salary. That's not true. You need to learn how to be productive inside the system itself. I think that's the bigger issue at play. People are hurting right now, and people are frustrated about it. People also have spending addictions. They want to live extravagant lifestyles. This is how it's always been. Middle class wants to act like they're rich, and when the world's social media, they will continue to do that. Yeah, I 100% agree with that. People americans usually don't know how to scale back their lifestyle. That is just people don't they can until maybe they lose their job and have no money. Then they need to start cutting. But as long as they have money in their pocket, they're going to spend it. I saw a statistic as I was kind of like, again, reading about this story from Lending Club Bank with inflation. Again, inflation might be 3%, but it was 9% a year ago. And I'll just say from the beginning of the pandemic, everything's up 30% to 60%. I always say that, but it's true. And it's hard to believe that a lot of people's salaries are up 30% to 60% to keep up with the increase. So yes, everyone's feeling the crunch. But Lending Club reported that between people making between 51 hundred grand, 65% are living paycheck to paycheck. Those making 100 to 150, 43% of those people are living paycheck to paycheck. So it's starting to go across several different, I guess, marginal tax brackets. It doesn't matter how much you're making. But again, if you're making 75 grand, you live a $75,000 lifestyle. If you make 100, well, you might have an 80 or $85,000 lifestyle, but if you're making 150 grand, you have $150,000 lifestyle. Somebody making 150 grand doesn't have a $75,000 lifestyle. And save 75 grand. That definitely does not happen. So what matters this goes back to my whole theory. What matters more, reality or perception of reality? I was taught growing up, you make $100,000 a year. You made it. Right? Because of inflation. Now it's like $100,000. Spends probably about $40,000 of what it was back when I was growing up. Right. So I think it's the perception that people are making more money and they feel like because they were told from a young age, hey, you're making 80 grand, 100 grand a year. You're just sitting pretty. It's not true anymore, because they don't understand inflation. They don't understand that things are a lot different than they were ten years ago when they were taught 15 years ago when they were taught 100 grand is a lot of money. Yeah, it was back when I was growing up, like, oh, man. Yeah, you make 100 grand, it's on. Yeah, you're right. And that quickly got absorbed in the last three years. All right, well, we finally made it here. There's a new IPO out there, kim Kardashian's underwear company, SKIMS. Nice. Can't wait. I don't know what it is, but. I think this is the article that really pushes me over the top to officially being old, because never, ever heard of this until yesterday of her underwear line, until she was with the commissioner of the NBA. That's when I first found out about it a couple of weeks ago. Well, this company, they're on pace this year. They say to make $750,000,000 in revenue, but they're being priced at 4 billion, which is a very high valuation. But one of her biggest sales this year, biggest products, and I can say this because I've heard it on TV, she came up it's shapewear for women. So she made a push up bra with fake nipples built in. That is what is a main driver of, I guess it's sold out in hours or days or whatever. So, yeah, hats off to her. I mean, she's going to make $4 billion, I guess. So is Kim Kardashian the new Elon Musk just with her name attached to something? There's like a Hype train behind it that's increasing the valuation. This is what frustrates me, too, is this is peak. Some sort of listen, I love capitalism. I preach capitalism. This is some thing about peak capitalism. There's nothing really new, no innovation that's happening. It's just like, because Kim Kardashian made it, or because you're putting nipples on a bras, it's not really innovating anything. Right. It seems innovative to me, creating these. New companies and just attaching one person's name to it, and they're getting a $4 billion valuation. This is where I talk about excess. This is where excess needs taken out the system. The world's too good attaching nipples to bras. Yes, it's shapewear. It's shapewear. Okay, let's use the right terminology. Now, there's a couple other IPOs that are coming out. So Sheen is a very popular they call it fast fashion. All right. There's another IPO. It's a very popular brand because it's very cheap fashion products and beauty products. They're another IPO that's coming out. They're selling a lot of product that has low margins. They're popular. I don't like buying apparel. I don't like buying apparel stocks unless they're extremely good value. And these do not seem like they're I just don't know the numbers off top of my head. But they don't seem like they're good value. Right. And then the other IPO was Reddit, the internet media company. I don't know much about reddit. I mean, I know of it. I get most of my information from Reddit. Do you really? A lot? Not most, but a lot, yeah. I think it's very useful. Is it like more? Yeah, it's like chat boards. Like you can research certain topics and they'll have so many different chat boards for that certain topic, so you can really like it's a good way to gauge people's thoughts on different things really quickly. So it kind of is like Twitter. I think it's more efficient to finding good information than Twitter, but I just wonder how they're going to monetize it. I don't trust anything that I don't trust chat boards because then people are driving their own agendas and thoughts. That's okay to hear different opinions, but. Just remember what we do is we study human behavior. Right. And I want to see how certain humans humans are behaving and reacting to certain information. Yeah. The one thing I remember reddit was during COVID you'd get on a reddit board and you'd try and drive up a penny stock. Right. Were you hopping on Reddit to figure out the get in the apes and jump on yeah, I wonder how that. Worked out for AMC is down like 98% this year. You couldn't be diamond hands. You had to have those paper hands and get out. Wonder what ever happened to that guy. Did he ever sell any of his stock? Which one? All of them. I don't know. The main guy, wall Street Bets, who knows? We'll research that for next. Yeah, I like that. They're just gone. He made some ridiculous amount of money and he wouldn't sell anything. The whole theory is it's not about making the money, it's about keeping the money. That's the hardest part is once you have the money to make sure you don't run out of it. Multigenerational wealth, that kind of thing. Right. There's a lot of people that made multimillions of dollars. Now they have$10,000 in their bank because they lost it all. Yeah. I mean, what is that, the old Kenny Rogers thing? Nondo when to know when to fold them. Yes, sir. All right, what do we got next? Black Friday poker game going. That sounds fun. Poker game. There you go. All right, so Black Friday sales. So they were up talk about lifestyle and the consumer americans were not shy on spending, at least on Amazon on Black Friday, did a cool 9.8 billion on Friday. That is up seven and a half percent from the prior year. And they said that about 1 billion items were purchased over kind of the Black Friday long weekend window there. And 500 million of them actually came from independent sellers, which I thought was actually pretty cool. So what do we pretty, pretty nice numbers there. We talk a lot about I know we have some points on Amazon, but do we think the Santa Claus rally is going to happen here at the end of the year? Kind of keep going, or do you think it's going to kind of cool off? Well, this is the Santa I said this before, this is the Santa Claus rally. I think it got pulled forward. Everyone knows it's the last five trading days of the year, and then the two in January are technically the Santa Claus rally. And Jeff Hirsch's dad coin phrased that back in the early 1970s. I think that data we knew this was going to be another record breaking year because we've talked about it before. People are still spending. They still had that addiction. Now, one of the stats is I think Mark talked about it yesterday on Maria is the buy now, pay later? How much of it was financed through buy now, pay later? And I think like 50% or no. I got that stat. Okay, go ahead. So Amazon did $10 billion of sales, roughly. It was like 9 billion and some change. So let's call it ten. 1 billion came from the buy now, pay later the old good layaway system. Buy now, isn't that like the layaway system back in the well, back then. You couldn't get the item until you finished paying for it. Here you go, 1 billion. So it's 20%. The one thing I looked into, and the best thing I can came up with is that the brick and mortar traffic was up 3%, too. So we're spending more money. And one of our research firms said that we're spending approximately 5% more than we were last year. In 2022, people were spending, on average $210 for Christmas. This year they're paying $222. So we're up about 5%. I don't know if people are just buying more stuff or if things are just up 5%. I'm going to guess that, too, that everything's just up 5% since last year. So I don't know, the buy now, pay later. It's not shocking to me, but I guess it's like buy now and default on it later. But it's basically just the thesis behind that is we're spending more, but we're borrowing more because we can't afford it now or don't want to pay for it now, or would rather just pay the minimal interest than look poor. I don't know. I don't know what the mindset but. Just remember that the stock market is a discounting mechanism for the future. Right? So how much of these earnings were priced in already as we head into next year? I mean, what do we see? Back in 2022, it was like December, November, December were awesome. It was 21 into 2022. December and November were awesome. And then come January, everything just sold off. Remember the first three months of 22? It's like a 15% correction, like the first three months. And then we could try to rebound. Then we were down 20% or whatever it be by the end of the year. I don't think that's necessarily going to happen this year, but I do think a lot of it's being pulled forward and it's not going to be as like a rocket ship, like everyone's kind of talking about Santa Claus rally. I think this is it. I don't think there's no catalyst, there's no negative catalysts out there to really drive us down further except the Black Swan. There's really no positive catalyst either. I don't know. We're going to be coming out, the Fed's going to not hike, right? And who mean we're having high GDP numbers, things like that. I'm very torn on this. And it was actually funny talking or watching two talking heads on Fox this morning. You had, what, Kenny Paul cari, and then you had Ryan Payne, and Ryan Payne has been an extreme bull for twelve months plus. And Kenny kind of has more of our mentalities because they're like Ryan's coming in and saying, oh, they're going to cut next year. And I've heard that we've raised aggressively all in 23 to cut next year. And a lot of us look at each other and like the only reason they'd cut is because something's broken. March right? Ryan's argument was like, well, inflation is tame. And he goes, well, it's tame because we made everything expensive. Like we are trying to taper it down. Cutting rates, it would be a stimulus again, which would probably ratchet up inflation again. They can't just come in here and cut 200 basis points next year. That is too much stimulus. The only way they would cut quickly and a lot by early next year is if we are in deflation. What I mean by that is negative inflation, not like disinflation, which is what's happening now, where inflation is coming down from nine to four. The only way they would cut is if we get a read like 0.5, negative GDP, 0.5%, that we're heading towards negative numbers, suggesting that things are really. Bad, that negative GDP, as long as. We'Re around that one to percent. Two, inflation, a major geopolitical thing like a war, would cause an immediate cut so the markets don't crash as well, I'd imagine. I can't see them coming in and just cutting. There's no way with everything we've done the past three years, all the money we printed, the quickest rate hiking cycle in history, there is no way. Whether it's now next year or ten years from now, there is something we're going to pay for. And the question we have to answer, trying to figure out as soon as possible before everyone else, is what's going to break? There's something ten years from now, 20 years, I don't know when, but there's no way we get out of this scot free. I agree with that. I don't know what'll break other than everything's more right now, what I don't. Know when or what. Yeah. All right, well, let's close it down with this one. So canceled. Everyone's canceled from ever being able to afford a house ever again because the numbers just keep coming out and they're crazy. So basically home prices hit another all time high. I guess this is through September now. We had month over month prices up 0.7%. We had year over year prices up 3.9%. And then kind of the national composite that tracks home prices is up 6.1% from the beginning of the year. We've talked about this before. A lot of this is obviously driven through inventory. If you don't absolutely have to sell your house right now, you're probably not going to, especially if you have a low interest rate locked in. But we talk about when are things going to get back to normal? Are we just years away from a normal real estate market? Real estate will normalize when interest rates normalize back down to five ish percent. We've talked about this before because no one's going to get rid of their sub 5% mortgage. They're going to stay in their homes. And when the only reason they'll leave is like, okay, they'll find that pain point of paying more money than what they were. But as interest rates come down and there becomes more supply of existing homes, then the existing home prices will come down as well. That's my but so we talked about how house brings prices are going up. I follow a guy on Twitter or X Kobishi, I don't know, the Kobishi Report or something like that. I'm terrible at pronouncing stuff. He said last year, and so he puts this on Twitter. He said last year the average price of a new home was about 500 grand. This year, right now. So this time last year, it was 500. This year, right now, a brand new home being built is selling for 400 grand. So it's going down. But that is opposite of what other artists so now I'm just confused. However, he did mention that 40% of homes don't have a mortgage. I thought that's actually pretty yeah, I thought that was pretty high, actually. But right now, also, this is the one reason why houses will probably stay high is because 35%, or about a third of all home being bought right now, are in cash. They're getting cash deals, and they're moving on, and cash is king because they don't have to worry about waiting, getting approved. It's like I'll have the money for you in two business days rather than a week or whatever for financing and pre approval and whatever. And they usually take in the houses as is. See, my problem, they don't even do. Like, inspections on some of these houses, too. My problem is we look at real estate as a whole. Like, what's happening in New York's, happening in, like we look at it all together. I think real estate is becoming so segmented. Like, what's happening in each state is so much different. Each local city is going to be so much different depending on where people come and go. Right? Real estate is essentially a matter of, as we all know, supply and demand, right? It matters where people are moving to and where people are moving out of. Right? So I think the urban kind of areas in the not so big cities, I think real estate will continue to rise. I think the big cities, I think people are still leaving the big cities because they don't want to be around all the madness, all the crazy stuff happening. New York City, La, chicago, all these big, they've they've still gone up the past year or so. And I think that you're going to start to see some really taming down, know, prices in those big cities, which can drive maybe down prices as a but, like, we won't feel it in our pockets and stuff like that if we're looking for houses. I'm curious what's going to happen in New York because of know, one of the states that accept immigration right from coming over the border. Sanctuary cities. Thank you, Derek. They had to cut the budget for schools, police, firemen, so that they can take care of by I think they had to cut a billion dollars out of the budget so that they can take care of the immigrants that are coming and being shipped to that city. Now, if you're starting to get rid of the community services, who wants to live there? Who's going to take care of you if you're in trouble? The police won't show up, the ambulance won't show up, the firemen won't show up. Your kids aren't they're cutting schools? They're cutting, like,$500 million out of school budgets. In New York, we're already kind of treading water from COVID and missing a year and a half of school because who was learning when they were in COVID? Not many kids. I think you hit the nail on the head there with the building new houses. The cost is going down there. It's more affordable, really, to build a house than it is to buy a current existing home. Correct. I think you're going to see a flood of new homes being built the next two decades, next decade or two, because of that reason that you just suggested. But I think there will eventually become an oversupply of that because we're building so much so quickly, because it is more affordable. This is where the free markets even things out in the end. Like right now the free markets are suggesting, hey, you shouldn't be buying a probably brand new or existing home. You should maybe look to build a new home. Then the free markets will equalize. And the only thing I can say with building a new home is you can buy down the rate if the mortgage is 8%. You're doing a 30 year mortgage at 8%. You can buy down the rate for I think up to like two or 3%. So if you're looking to buy a $400,000 house and you bought 3%, you got to come to the table with an extra twelve grand to get your 5% interest rate. Problem is who has the spending or saving discipline to save up money for even a down payment nowadays in the they are already $200,000 in debt. Between student loans and car payments and personal loans, how in the heck are they going to be able to afford a $400,000 mortgage to build a new house and put the down payment on there and then have an emergency expense or something that came up? The world's different, man. There's a lot of things we got to pay attention to here. So everything Tony said, I completely agree with and that's why it doesn't make any sense to me because the price per square foot for sold houses and apartments in Manhattan this year is only down 3.7%. That's through October. So down 3.7% from just ridiculous, ridiculous base. It's only down 4%. Someone's still buying. They got to live somewhere. And I agree. I've seen statistics that we just don't have enough homes. Building new homes is a new thing. But how much can builders really make up their margins when they have to sell down rates? We probably saw the biggest ever real estate boom for apartments. I mean, everyone I talk to when I go to conferences is building. All these private equity guys are building apartments out of the wazoo in all these areas. So at what point do these apartments complexes become vacant? Essentially what happened over in China is happening here. China evergrande situation, they built out so many apartment buildings and they built up so many apartments that they couldn't have enough people to fill those apartments and now they are going bankrupt and there's a lot of bubbles that are bursting over there. At what point in time does that happen here? And do companies and private equity guys get overextended here? And the question then becomes do people even care about owning a house anymore? Do would they rather rent or will people in my generation, Millennials, Gen X even, are people going to still have that buying a house mentality? These are behavior trends we need to. The people that are going to get smacked are the FOMO PE firms like, oh, I'm missing out on well it's too late. You should have built some of the very first apartments. Now you got an empty building, and that's not good, right? Yeah. All right, well, good stuff this week. Thanks, everyone, for listening. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. 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