The Big Smokescreen: Jobs, Government & Taylor Swift, Ep. #197

The Capitalist Investor

In this week's episode of The Capitalist Investor, we delve into the current state of the stock market and discuss the implications of recent events. From the JOLTS report to the ousting of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, there are several key themes that are shaping the market landscape. In this thought-provoking article, we will explore these themes in detail, providing analysis and insights into their potential impact on the stock market and the economy as a whole.
 
The JOLTS Report: A Mixed Bag

One of the key topics discussed in the podcast is the JOLTS report, which provides insights into job openings and labor turnover. The report came in better than expected, with job openings increasing by 600,000 in a month. However, it is important to note that the JOLTS report is a lagging data point and can be volatile. As one of the hosts points out, "Jumping 600,000 jobs in a month isn't necessarily concerning if it doesn’t stay that way.”

Bond Market & Yields Rising

Another significant theme discussed is the bond market and the impact of rising yields. Jeffrey Gundlach, a renowned bond manager, warns that an uptick in unemployment could lead to a recession. The bond market has been experiencing a sell-off, driving up yields. This has implications for companies that have taken on significant debt, as higher rates make it more expensive to service their debt. Additionally, the US government may face challenges in refinancing its debt at higher rates, leading to increased interest payments and the need to print more money.

Equal Weight S&P 500

The hosts also touch upon the concentration of stock market gains, with the equal weight S&P 500 down 2% for the year. This highlights the dominance of a few tech-heavy companies in driving the overall market performance. While these companies have seen significant gains, many other companies are struggling to maintain good margins and face challenges in the current economic environment. This concentration of gains raises concerns about the overall health and sustainability of the market.

Inflation

Inflation is another factor that is shaping the stock market landscape. The hosts discuss how the rising cost of living is impacting consumer behavior and the economy as a whole. Many individuals are finding it difficult to afford their American dream, with housing prices skyrocketing and wages not keeping up with the cost of living. This has led to a shift in consumer behavior, with more people resorting to freelance work and struggling to make ends meet. The hosts highlight the importance of active management in navigating these challenging times and finding companies with positive cash flow, profitability, and minimal debt.

Kevin McCarthy Ousted

The political landscape also plays a significant role in shaping the stock market. The recent ousting of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House raises concerns about the future direction of the government and its impact on the economy. With the debt ceiling discussion and spending bill on the horizon, the absence of a speaker creates uncertainty and potential challenges in addressing key issues. The hosts discuss the potential implications of these political developments and the need for a clear and effective approach to address the country's economic challenges.

Conclusion & Future Outlook

In conclusion, the stock market is facing a range of challenges and uncertainties. From the impact of rising yields and inflation to the concentration of gains and the political landscape, there are several factors that are shaping the market's trajectory. It is crucial for investors to stay informed and adapt their strategies to navigate these challenging times.

Transcript

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Hello and welcome to this week's episode of The Capitalist Investor. As always, you got me Diamond Hands D and back after a two week hiatus. Cool hand, Luke. Well, good man. And Tony, as always. What's up, guys? We're back. We're back. I'm glad to be alive. I actually thought I was dying a couple of days ago. So COVID, looking back at the time, it was ten cups a day of caffeine for two weeks straight, no sleep, stress, nonstop travel between Texas for two weeks straight caught up with me. I had heart palpitations all night, didn't sleep one night. I guarantee my blood pressure is running pretty high and the hospital maybe had a coffee or energy drinks. Both. And obviously, you know, part of the networking is rubbing elbows down there with good fund managers, you know, trying to look at, you know, good alternatives possibly for clients. It's 2 hours a night. Right. So combine that with some energy drinks nugget. Yep. So I'm alive. It's all matters. All right. I've got to lay off the caffeine dudes that stay away from the energy drinks. Man, I might have a energy drink a year. Some people, like, have one a day. Yeah, I just. What I do, as you guys know, I think I probably go through, what, $10,000 a year in coffee here? I do drink ten cups a day usually. So I. We have to have a show on French presses again, tons to talk about the efficiency of French press. Anyway, moving on. All right. Well, good to have you back here. Too bad. Yeah, Alive for sure. Nothing going on, though. Nothing really to talk about. Oh, man, I got what it is, and I might have to bleep this album. What a shit show. Holy cow, man. Bananas. Bananas. Right. I was told that that was a very infrequent used word in when I was in Kansas. Kansas? It's Kansas. Some of the best people out there, though. I think they are. No, no, no. So we got what? JOLTS report came in pretty hot yesterday, which we'll kind of get into, which is the job numbers. So the let's so that we'll talk about jolts because I mean I had to go look it up. Job openings and labor turnover survey yeah so what what jobs are opening up and which ones are who's leavin quitting getting fired. Moving on We saw the equal weight S&P 500, meaning not market cap weighted, meaning that doesn't take into account the top seven stocks as much. It's down 2% now in the year, which is kind of interesting. Everyone cites the market's been ripping higher, but really the markets are kind of down and you don't account for the top seven. Kevin McCarthy is ousted. I counted on that a little bit. First time ever in history that speaker's been voted out like that. Mm hmm. And then maybe we'll talk some football. We'll leave that. That one that carried out there? Yep. All right, so the JOLTS numbers came out yesterday and blew the doors off. That's why the market went down. Good news was bad news for the market. What? Because that means that the economy is still, quote unquote, hot, and that means that the Fed is either going to be, you know, either maybe raising rates because I think the probability of a raise rate in November went to 31%. It started off at 50, went down to like almost zero, and now it's back up to 30%. Possibility. And and then what is it longer for or higher for longer is a term that you'll be hearing quite a bit and that means interest rates will be high. I talked to one of my friends yesterday who's in the mortgage business, and he goes, what A that is a doornail, you know, And mortgage rates crested 8% for the first time in 20 years yesterday. And you're in ten year Treasuries are almost five. Yeah, which is insane. Like, this is this is where both the bond market sold off a ton on that because of higher rates than the stock market did. Right. I want to say, though, you know, here's a couple of things with the JOLTS report. It's it's the trend that everyone cares about. You know, we were a 12.5 million job openings that, you know, right at the end of the COVID pandemic, like, you know, end of 2020, that's got down to 8.9 million, a jump to like 9.5 yesterday. Yeah, the trend still down. And one of the things that's interesting about the JOLTS report specifically is there's a couple of points I wanted to hit on. First, it's a lagging data point, meaning that takes into account what happened essentially a couple of months ago. It isn't really reflective of what's happening now. Right. So and the second thing is it's usually volatile. It's up and down. And again, it comes back to the trend, jumping 600,000 jobs in a month or so. Isn't that concerning? It's if it stays that right. So what's going to happen next month? The third thing is, you know, it's the response rates usually is way down. It's usually much higher than what it currently is. So only 32% of people, employers are responding to the survey than what's usually required to. I'm typically it's between 50 or 70% and not as many people responded. I mean, the numbers are more sporadic, right? So those are a couple of things that I think the market's kind of taken into account today. You see the market reopened higher today. You see the bond market ripping higher yields going back down. So I think it was kind of a false signal because the ADP report came out today. And here's the thing I find fascinating. This is why I can't determine which way is up. I don't know what smokescreens people are throwing out there, but we talked about the JOLTS number coming in a lot better than expected. And they said that there was roughly$500,000 or 500,000 jobs opening in the professional and business services. Today's ADP report comes out and they said that a lot of the the gains in jobs because we're supposed to have 180,000,$180, 180,000 jobs created. We only created 90,000 and 880,000 number was revised up and man, what a whiff. Yeah. So but there were losses in today's report. ADP losses of 32,000 jobs in the professional and business services like what a conflicting. There's $500,000 jobs but there's 32,000 people losing their jobs like this does not make sense to me. I'm baffled. But what all of this really means is that, you know, you mentioned the bonds. Yeah. So Jeffrey Gundlach had an exclusive interview with Maria BARTIROMO on Fox. And if no one if you haven't heard Jeffrey Gundlach, he is arguably the best bond manager today. And he's been like that for well over a well over a decade. He's somebody to listen to. It's kind of like when Jamie Dimon talks, you know, when Jeffrey Gun Lott talks, you probably want to listen to him. And he said, if we see any type of uptick in unemployment, get ready for a recession. And a lot of thing like the bond soaring, everything's going up. The one interesting thing is that we've always talked about the inverted yield curve, where the two, you know, you should get a two year bond just hypothetically at 4%. You would you would think that the ten year bond would be at 5%. And actually the opposite. Like just to give you an idea what an inversion means, it is starting to flatten. Yeah. And and when it on inverts and it gets back to quote unquote normal the they call it the divot happened just before a recession actually strikes. Yeah. So we're here maybe I don't know I mean because in the beginning of the year so many analysts said a recession this year, we might get it probably not going to we can't happen really until mid next year, couple weeks. I didn't listen to four episodes past couple of weeks, but I'm sure you talked about, you know, the planning aspect around higher yields and things like that. You've hit on that multiple times a day before. On the other side of it, you know, the costs of debt service servicing debt goes up a lot and the higher rates stay near this 5% level compared to where they were at, you know, one or 2% for 14 years straight. The more it's going to cost these companies to to re service their debt or get new debt. Right. So while the higher growth small cap companies are affected by that, a lot of the tech companies that took out tons of debt to grow their business topline revenue are affected by that. That's why I think that this is going to be cycled through over the next couple of years, especially if that that higher for longer is really bad for companies, that the leaks that the US government, for example, to has to refinance 50% of their debt over next two years. So does the US government really want to refinance at these five or 6% levels compared to where they were from it refinancing at 1.2%, one or 2%? That means that the debt to GDP, the interest payments are going to be extremely high. Huge. Right now they have to print more money. I think right now they're chasing their tail. I actually there's an interesting stat I found yesterday, total U.S. debt rises to by 275,000,000,001 day. Now it's a $33.5 trillion in debt. Just two weeks ago, we were at 33 trillion. So we've added$500 billion in debt in two weeks. Yeah, they call it they call it the doom loop is what I've a debt supercycle. Yeah, that supercycle loop. That's a that doesn't sound good. That's a real term. It's a real term, but it's basically they're printing more bonds to pay their interest payments. Like I don't know when that Well that's why that yields rising. Yeah. Oversupply of bonds and now they're putting more bonds and you're seeing China dump their U.S. bonds have been driving up yields is that I haven't seen the headline so maybe that's just happening in that what do they call that the the dark room. The dark room sales Talk about stocks. Yeah, I forget what that was called. But anyway, I know it's I mean yeah, yeah there's a lot of. Yeah, there is a term but the dark for money. Yeah. The biggest thing here is like how when you have I mean again like Luke, you kind of pointed out that some of this stuff may be backwards looking. Some of it's forward looking, some of it's a little bit more recent. Only one third of the surveys came back for the jolts numbers. So like, which way is up, you know, at this point. But all you can do is watch these yields continue to rise and that means bonds are being sold, have more yields go up by themselves in the open market, the less the Fed has to do. Basically, the market's going open for the Fed by driving up yields. Yep. Yep. HO How long do you think we can go with with this JOLTS number being just so huge? Right. Because we're talking about if unemployment are with. Gundlach Yeah, you know, if unemployment goes up a couple of percentage points, you know we're we're in a recession. I think that's a pretty obvious take. But what is it going to take to get there if we have to cycle through these 9 million open jobs before we start laying people off? But here's here's where my mind goes with this, is that things are so much more expensive. Now, I know that inflation is 3%, dude. Everything's up 60% in the last two years. And the thing is, is that there may not be many jobs. The unemployment may always kind of stay low because people are starting to have to work two jobs to keep up with everything. That costs more money because wages did not keep up with the cost of everything around you. I took a lot of Ubers the past two weeks in Dallas, in Dallas, in Austin, and almost everybody was saying, Hey, like I like to talk, you know, obviously I like talking. Yeah. And a lot of the universities said that they had to do is supplement their income there. And I think that they told me what they do for a living. It wasn't like bad. I'm just saying it wasn't like the McDonald's worker. It was like, yeah, you know, actual good paying jobs. It should be good paying jobs. I mean, more people resorting to that freelance economy, right? Yeah, for sure. Yeah. A lot of a lot of millennials. And what's before the Gen Z is that Gen Z? The younger, the younger, the millennial. Yeah, yeah. The Gen Z and the millennials are really they're starting to get pissed off because they can't afford their American dream. They can't get into a house and, you know, like, I want to, I want to, you know, why can't my job pay my bills, like in the real world, I guess. But it's it's real. It's very real. My generation is very pissed off. They did live. It's self-inflicted. But I talked to somebody yesterday that bought the first home in the late 1990s for $35,000 and their income was $20,000. So you do the math on that. They say the numbers again, the House was 35 and it was a decent house and the income was 20,000. So less than double your income to buy a house right now. What's the average income averages? This college is called 70, which is called 50. The 50. Yeah, right around 50 or 60, especially in Cleveland. Let's say this this goes around here in Ohio, Nothing crazy on New York. Time for that stuff. So 50, can you really find a $100,000 that I said? It's called 75,000. Really? It's a one and a half times. You know, can you really find 80 90,000 lower house and now now they may have existed 2 to 3 years ago maybe. You know, and you know, my my generation and Derek's generation, we bought our houses about five, six, seven, eight years ago. My brother just bought it. And we're good if got 3% interest rate rather than spot a starter home right around here. Yeah. $200,000. Yeah, right. I'm just saying, like, it's really right around the $200,000. Wait, wait, wait, wait till mortgage rates come down rapidly. Your house value is going to get to crushed because there will because there's no supply right now no one wants to get rid of. Again, we talked about this. No one's get regular three or 4%, three or 4% interest rate to jump into an eight. So when those interest rates get around five and a half or five, again, I was talking to my guy who's a mortgage broker, five and a half. Five is the number one. You'll see activity back in in the real estate market. And when that happens, there'll be a lot of supply and maybe no demand. You know, at least at least for a long period of time, maybe early on. I feel like, yeah, I just definitely need to get out of this house. It's too small. I want to know what whatever that might look like. But I'll look at the house. I bought two and a half years ago, like at the rate I bought it, I got very lucky with the rate. I'm like, We're looking at rates now and I put that rate on my house right now. I'm like, I wouldn't want to buy my house right now. I'm right. I wouldn't want to look. I wouldn't even look at that. The the payment is 60 to 80% more double including property tax insurance than 8% interest rate gonna pay. Yeah, that's not cool. That's not cool. No, it's not. All right. So, yeah, the bond market is is signaling all kinds of craziness right now. So we'll we'll just we're going to continue to keep our eye on it because it is actually moving very quickly. All right. Moving on to the stock market. It is been going down. I think the S&P, what did it peak at 15, 16% year to year, not just this year, but what, you know, from Jan 1 to 17%, 17 or downward word at ten now. So we've given back almost half of the gains. And and look, I think you alluded to it the equal weight. So everything's on a level playing field, right. Is down 2%. So that 10% still is being propped up by big attack. Mm hmm. When do they start rolling over? Because Amazon took a hit yesterday, 3% or something like that. One of the yearly your darlings. Right. So any insight on on this guys. Well yeah we've been talking about it for, you know over a year now kind of the concentrated nature of the gains on the S&P 500 and everything that we just talked about is is hitting, you know, most companies out there, it's it's harder and harder to maintain good margins no matter what your business is. There is a lot of gains at the beginning of this year. And the tech heavy companies, mainly because they got beaten up so badly the year before. But all of these pressures that we've that we've been seeing on the economy, they might not affect Microsoft or Amazon first. All these other S&P 500 companies are having a tough time and we're hearing it in the earnings calls. And it's just the the environment is is difficult. So we've we've seen it we've seen it play out this year where everyone was pretty excited to have gains again, especially after a rough 2022. But even as we dig deeper through these podcasts, we we always kind of, you know, have a little caveat in there that the other shoe could be dropping soon. And it is you know, we have we still have a tight labor market. It's hard to find employees. And at the end of the day, you know, the you can only produce so much based on your employees. Right. So is a difficult time, I'd say across the the the landscape right now. But I think I think what you're seeing is all these pressures that we've been talking about finally coming to a head. Yeah. There's two things that come to mind with like where the market is right now. And I'm I'm really trying to figure out. So a lot of our analysts or one of our main analysts that we use for, you know, direction of the stock market, things like that. And they're telling us a lot of industry analysts are saying that the estimated earnings growth next year is supposed to be up around 10%. Yeah. Now where's that coming from? Is is that because because their earnings growth is going up because of inflation like their have more revenue, they start cutting some jobs and open up their margins. Right now, I'd imagine they're being squeezed. Yeah. It's you know, earnings growth is negative. Some people keep spending money. They're able to kind of become more efficient in the labor. Right. If they are able to lay off some of the inefficient workers. Yeah, it's it's pricing in like the 10% 10% earnings growth. I mean, this year was negative and the market was up. We're up 10%, like we're an earnings recession right now. We're talking about 10% growth next year. I'm interested to see how that plays out. Maybe it has a lot to do with energy because energy jumped 30%. I got to look at a small portion, though. I know it's in the primary comes from consumer discretion, you know, consumers or so we're they're expecting us to spend more money next year is what I see how I rate in the way. And then in a way, I'll just and my comment is this is the the best time to have active management in your portfolio finding companies. I ring I ring it whenever I get on TD Ameritrade. I know look when you get on, you know, Fox and things like that, it's finding companies that have free cash flow. They're positive money, profitability and minimal debt. The keys of a successful business and and that is why active management is so important. Well that's why I wanted to kind of say is, you know, I know talking with one of our guys internally, one of our main portfolio managers, he cited the equal weight being down two or 3% as a theory around, hey, like, this is an opportunity where outside the top seven stocks, there's a lot of value out there, there's a lot of attractive value. So we've recently made, I think, a lot of moves the past week, like trimmed some positions, added some positions, one of them B in which no outside of I might go, I think I'm going to Charles Payne later So and plus this podcast doesn't come out afterwards you talk about the stock but target I never would have thought just because the kind of woke mentality that Target has the stocks down like 50% for like in the past, like, you know, a couple of months because of the low culture, because of the whole trade down effect right from Target to Wal-Mart. But now it's at a point where it's pretty dang attractive. It's sold off so much to where the book value per share and their earnings per share and the projected growth and the p e ratio as you go through all those different fundamental metrics. And they're all it's historic. Yeah, it's historically at a very, very attractive level. So we picked it up, right? I mean, this is where you got to use these opportunities as a stock picking environment, stock pickers attitude. They're like, hey, there's a lot of, you know, sell off happening. There's talk maybe stocks that need a lot more. It needs to go. But a lot of stocks are very sold off. Like I said, one of my one of my buddies I follow on Twitter and I know him personally. He's a he's a pessimist, you know, a bear. A bear, essentially. And he's been waiting for this bear market and he's reading headlines now that a lot of these big shops are going to look at this as a squeeze. You know, you know, squeeze, squeeze the bears and pop this pop this market up to 4800 is what they're talking about. They always go back to the state of, well, what's truly holding up this economy is the access to credit and $1 trillion of credit card, whatever revolving credit is out there, but $6 trillion available. So $5 trillion more is available if you wanted to go down that path. Right. So no matter how bad things get, no matter how high rates go, technically the consumer could remain strong. Right. And then, you know, I always used to target and Walmart example, like people have this stigma now, like this lifestyle. They want to live on social media like this. They look they want to look good in front of their friends. They'll rather shop at Target than Walmart, right? Because it's got a stigma attached to it. So I don't know. There's this kind of like lifestyle behavioral changes, this like boujee lifestyle change that's happening right now. And I think it's something serious we got to take into account because again, what we study is behaviors and people right now, I mean, I don't know, I'm curious to see what happens this holiday season. You know what? It'll tell us how squeezed everyone is. I think. Are they going to be spending money or not as much. I'm I'm that is going to be the the Hadwen for all the big box stores. Right. You know like you say target like well they have a big event coming up and that's Christmas it's just going to get all the kids and ask them, you know, hey, how many gifts did you get this year? I mean, how much does Santa Claus give you this? Yeah, I tell you a lot. God, my little daughter is all about having a pink motorized jeep. She asks about it every day. Nice. Like a pink Lambo. Like. Yeah, We looked at the paint when it's a jeep, it's a jeep anyway. Kevin But wow, this is historic. Were they They got rid of the speaker of the House. They, they voted against and pin it on them. Matt Gates Well, Matt Gates, he's coming in hot. He like rallying the troops, the eight people that voted the Republicans eight Republicans voted to oust McCarthy. Yeah, all Democrats did. Eight Republicans turn against him. Yeah. Now we're kind of sitting duck and we got, what, 44? Well, there's 45 days until the debt ceiling discussion comes back and the whole spending bill comes back in the discussion. So we need to fill that void next. And we don't have up we don't have a speaker. And they all went on vacation. They went on a long weekend. They're all on big. They're on a long weekend. They left. No one's in. No one's working in the government right now until Monday. Right. And at least whenever I'm right. How do you pronounce it gets. Gates. Gates. Gates. Very interesting. You know, they punted on him. They they ousted him because he was trying to just put a Band-Aid on on the thing until they can spend more time on the debt ceiling. And the Republicans, I would say the far right Republicans got really pissed off and teamed up with the Democrats to oust him. You know, Gates pulled over, what, seven or eight Republicans and every every Democrats like, yeah, let's get out of there. And they're like, okay, well, I can get you know, so who's really being bipartisan? That dude, Right? Well, one of the things he said that resonated with me, I don't know it's on one of his interviews is someone asked them, have you talked to President Trump or Donald Trump about this? And he said, Of course I did. Why? The fact that Trump has so much influence still like basically this could be like a Trump led narrative somehow, some way to come back to help him in the election, some sort of way. The fact that Trump has so much power still not as a sitting president, but he's sitting there criticized like they you know, they're like he's criticizing. So did he really talk to them? But here's the here's here's the conspiracy theory. Oh, boy, Here. I wanted to bring some we hadn't talked about. We had this conspiracy theory. Oh, yeah, Yeah. We got the alliance going on the way. Yeah, the nanoparticles, Russia, Russia and us are doing them at the same same day or something like that. I heard Russia. Oh, yeah, Yeah. Tell them. Sweet God. All right, so Republican, you know, a political Republican guy down in Texas announced on Tuesday. Troy Mills announced that Tuesday they're going to file paperwork to nominate, you know, former President Trump as the next speaker of the House. That is the conspiracy theory that I am seeing on Twitter right now. Oh, yeah. So now not only is Biden going after Trump, you know, and then all that stuff and all these things against President Trump, but now he's going to be the speaker and he's going to be formulating the the impeachment stuff. I could you imagine what is going to happen on Monday? On Monday? Monday could be very interesting if they say, oh, yeah, we got we got to do it over here at once. You're not a mr. Mr. President, Donald Trump as our new speaker, can you? It could happen next week. That could happen because you don't need to be an elected official to have. Yeah. I mean, how does Trump just be How is he able to do all of this? How is he able to go through life with everything happening, like between balancing business, between balancing these these trials, between he golfs a lot of golf, house owning, owning the golf course probably helps with the time I should follow his gender. How do you how do you know he's saying yeah go crazy. Yeah I don't know much He he's mentally tough. I'll give him that for sure. I mean, you always you always I always find it fascinating the you take a picture of the president the day that they're like taking office and then you look the take the you see their picture four years after and man now you just get the life sucked. So I thought I was having a heart attack down traveling for two weeks and my thinking and these people are just going insane. I'm like, wow, the Kevin McCarthy, you know, ousting is is very this is this is weird. Like, I don't know it's again just weird times. Well you know I'm I'm no fan of any politician really but you know McCarthy didn't do anything that he said he was that he said he was going to do. And basically Gates called his bluff, that that's what happened. And the disappointing part is that only eight Republicans went along with them. So that basically means most of the Republican members in the House were okay with not getting anything done. That's how I look at it. Nothing's been done. I watched I watch him get, you know, 3 minutes on the on the steps last night. I like what he has to say. Yeah. It's very clear. Like we don't have a budget. Like everything we just talked about in the front half of this podcast is all because of this unlimited spending. And it's only getting worse and worse and worse. And it's going to blow up soon. Well, not soon, but it's going in the wrong direction. Someone you know, we talk about adults in the room that that that statement makes me very upset because I still don't see any we need a budget that that's all they have to do. They could solve the problem in 25 minutes. Well, the government's a big Ponzi scheme. You know, it's hard not to get. The problem is when you cut back spending, there's going to be pain because it was too far past the point. Right. You know, you know, deflationary might come because of taking all the money out of the system. That's not keeping the Ponzi scheme going. You know, people well, you know, with the welfare programs, Social Security, things like that, like these are things that people will get really frustrated with. That's why you this this whole thinking has to keep going. Right. But it can't keep going forever. That's the problem we have to balance. And politicians, you know, we just want them to be real and be like, hey, we understand that there's going to be some impact negative impacts on Americans everyday life, but we need to do this. Or America will not be around 50, 60, whatever years, how many decades down the road, because we can't. Yeah, we need a politician to say get Gates did say he goes, what you guys are doing you're robbing from the future you know he goes I will take five, ten, $20 donations from the average working person because that's what I'm standing up for. And you guys can go do your lobbyist and get your millions of dollars to stay in office. I'll do it. I'll do it five, ten, $20 at a time, because I'm trying to speak for the people that you know. So and I'm very conflicted on on what happened. And at the end of the day, like I kind of look at McCarthy saying he was trying to just put a Band-Aid on it so they can get to a resolution. Gates was like, you shouldn't have done that. You know, I even think Trump said a few weeks ago, he's like, let this thing let this thing shut down like like create the pain. Yeah, right. Create the pain. And you will have a real solution. Putting a Band-Aid is just like you said, like no other Republicans stood up and they're like, Well, again, because we got a Band-Aid on it, you know, like, I think we're okay. I think we're okay. Yeah. And all those were going on vacation for a couple days. They all voted no. They're like, okay, you know, let's slap a Band-Aid on it and get this vote done. And then I'll go, you know, collect more money from from the from the lobby. The problem is we have an election coming up here next year. So like, no one wants to be looked like the bad guy. That's the problem with politics. It almost looks like the bad guy right there does need to be some truth, you know, paint and clear in the fraud. No one wants to address it because they don't want to be ousted and be like, hey, we don't lose election because. Yeah, yeah, That's why you don't talk. That's why you don't hear Social Security obviously on the docket for trying to fix. Yeah, you have to fix it. It's going to be whoever is at the musical chairs, whoever that when the music stops playing and that politician during that time of reelection, you're done. Yeah. You're trying to take all the money from the grandmas on Social Security. But let's talk about the NFL, the NFL football in the skimping of Taylor Swift. Yeah. So this really annoys me. This runs football. I just I was watching the Kansas City game the past two weeks and I was like, every time they show Taylor Swift in the box, I'm like, I don't care. Like, I really don't. And why is it becoming all about her and every news outlet? I mean, even, you know, Fox Business, Fox News, CNBC, everyone's covering this. It's like, I get Taylor Swift's a big name. I get she drives revenue. She's a business aspect, things like that. She doesn't drive my fantasy football team the better records like I don't I don't I don't get how just trying to date somebody can can become that that's the point where our society is like it's all about the stigma. It's all about the presence, the appearance of something. It's not about the actual football down and dirty. Who's going to win? It's about the all the other advertisement bullcrap. Yeah, 100%. I think that's why I don't know if I don't know if it was real or not, but I saw like that guy. What was his the guy that owns the Dallas Mavericks. Q Cuban said, like, Hey, Taylor, when you're done with Travis Galaxy, I got I got some guys on my team that are single because he wants that. He's like, yeah, I want I want my team showcased on, you know, I'm on TV. The Internet says it might not actually be true love. It might be more of a of a work a work as a wrestling term for it might be fake. Yeah. And while you know that Jets game did 28 million viewers or something like that the highest highest rated show since the Super Bowl last year. So who's orchestrating it? Kelsey and Taylor Kelsey on is not orchestrating anything. Now you're like, hey, you know, he's he's the puppet. And then Cleveland Heights got a shout out. So he's just the puppet and all this. I mean, I don't know, the dude makes a Pfizer commercial and then three days later, he's dating Taylor Swift. You decide, Oh, no. But it is pretty obvious that the NFL doesn't need anything right there. They're the number one show and one, you know, they were when they were, you know, doing their woke stuff or whatever. And people were mad about it. They're saying, oh, you're losing ratings. You know, people would say, oh, yeah, they won from number one in the ratings to number one in the ratings. Right? It's just like football is just way above everything else. So needing Taylor Swift, you know, seems kind of ridiculous. I don't know what the end game is, but it just doesn't seem like it's true love at the beginning. That's the weird part for me. I'll actually see Intimate with the Mother. I know it's so weird. It just happens, like out of the clear blue sky and then the next, you know, the next day she's chillin with Dana Kelsey in the box, giving her hugs and stuff. It's a from State Farm. Yeah. So? So, yeah. Internet thinks it might not be true love, but it is certainly in the number one story out there. Hopefully. I think the game was in New York Sunday night, so hopefully it goes away. So there was some star power in that suite. But Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman, Wolverine's there. He does. And he doesn't even get a mention. It's like, Hey, that's Wolverine for me. He's get divorced and they think he just got divorced. It's like 30 years. Seriously, you know, I don't know. I'm done anyway, I think fact check go check by us know next week, I guess. Anyway, we just got to shake it off and whatever. Taylor. Taylor, Rock and roll. I don't know. All right. All right. Well, good stuff. Well, we'll check on check in on Taylor Swift next week as well. But thanks. Thanks for listening. We we hope you all have a great week. If you have any questions or comments on this topic, you'd like us to discuss these topics for sure. Info at AWP, can that sitcom and we'll talk to you next week. The opinions expressed in the podcasts are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any investment, legal, financial or tax strategy. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. Please consult a qualified professional about your individual needs. This fact checking supplement. I don't have time. Totally forgot about. Did you on the Teslas? I looked it up. The the Tesla fact checks. Yeah. Come on. So I did look it up at the the battery batteries on the Tesla are meant to last between 300,000 and 500,000 miles. Really? Yep. And if you want to replace the whole thing, it's kind of a wide range, but it still seems reasonable between 5020 thousand to completely replace all the batteries. That's how much an engine costs. Yeah. And if you're going to get 3 to 5 grand or. You know what? Yeah, well, I thought. Yeah. All right. I'm glad to be back. I'm not kicked out. I mean, are they made out of, like, aluminum and shit? Like. Well, they never rust like that. Your battery is going to last longer than your Tesla.