The Capitalist Investor

Official Bull Market, Chinese Exports 800X in 30 Years, Ep. #182

June 15, 2023 Mark Tepper
The Capitalist Investor
Official Bull Market, Chinese Exports 800X in 30 Years, Ep. #182
Show Notes

Welcome Back To The Capitalist Investor Podcast! This week on the Capitalist Investor Podcast, the squad discusses the official “Bull Market” definition. The hosts highlight the potential risks and uncertainties that could drive the market down and emphasize the importance of paying attention to fundamentals and earnings. The podcast also covers the Fed's three moves, which could lead to a pause, hike, or cut, and the need for revolving credit to start getting paid off. The hosts question the US's $31 trillion deficit and compare it to China's $14 trillion debt, which is close to 50% of their GDP. The hosts caution that the US has nothing to show for its debt, while China has grown without taking on debt, becoming a dominant economy in the world. The hosts discuss the key differences between past and present exports and how they could impact businesses and the economy. China has grown exponentially in exports, becoming a major player in the semiconductor and technology world, without borrowing money to grow. The podcast ends with a discussion on current events and cancel culture, with the hosts expressing their opinions on the implications of cancel culture. The hosts maintain a defensive investment stance and remain cautious about the current market rally. Additionally, the podcast discusses the potential impact of China invading Taiwan and the resulting chain reaction on the supply chain, worse than COVID, as well as the potential for inflation to skyrocket. The speakers then briefly discuss the U.S. Open golf tournament and provide insights on the course and players. The opinions expressed in the podcasts are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any investment, legal, financial or tax strategy. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. Please consult a qualified professional about your individual needs.
 
Timestamped Chapter Summary

  • 00:00:00 - Introduction of hosts
  • 00:00:11 - Discussion on fashion choices
  • 00:00:21 - Cool Hand's motto: "look good, play good"
  • 00:00:37 - Cool Hand's voice is gone
  • 00:00:55 - Discussion on Mexico and healthcare
  • 00:01:16 - Diamond Hands Day's birthday lunch
  • 00:01:52 - Current market rally
  • 00:02:20 - Discussion on exports
  • 00:02:39 - Cancelled with current events: someone not allowed on TV
  • 00:02:50 - US Open discussion
  • 00:03:10 - Officially in a bull market
  • 00:03:32 - Definition of a new bull market in the S&P 500
  • 00:04:02 - Potential risks and opportunities in the current market
  • 00:04:22 - Uncertainty about what could drive the market higher
  • 00:05:07 - The potential risks of being too bullish
  • 00:05:36 - The importance of a fiduciary mindset and being defensive
  • 00:06:16 - The hype and high valuation of certain technology stocks
  • 00:06:45 - Sector rotation and the potential for smaller stocks to outperform
  • 00:07:27 - The impact of high interest rates on mid and small-cap stocks
  • 00:07:52 - Everything has been multiple expansion, not earnings growth
  • 00:08:00 - Earnings have been flat
  • 00:08:27 - The S&P 500 multiple is around 20, historically around 16.7
  • 00:09:07 - The average investor is becoming too bullish
  • 00:09:26 - The importance of being defensive and not transitioning to high growth, small mid-cap names
  • 00:10:03 - The Fed's potential moves and their impact on the market
  • 00:10:19 - The need for revolving credit to be paid off for confidence in the economy
  • 00:10:42 - Japan's debt is around 250% of GDP
  • 00:11:12 - Technical bull market from the bottom, but not back to all-time highs
  • 00:11:33 - China's debt is around 50% of GDP, $14 trillion in debt
  • 00:11:36 - Discussion on Elon Musk's Twitter chart comparing US and China exports in&